Class 3 Handicap Chase | 2m7f | Good (light rain forecast) | 10 runners

Race Shape, Pace & Track Assessment

Worcester is generally a fair track, though prominent racers often hold an advantage over staying trips when the ground is good.

Likely pace angles:

Bagheera Ginge is the obvious front-runner.

Disco Davis also likes to force matters.

Grand Clermont raced prominently when winning at Uttoxeter.

Peaky Boy and My Bobby Dazzler should sit handy enough.


This looks a genuinely run staying handicap rather than a tactical affair. Strong pace should place the emphasis on stamina and jumping efficiency.

Draw: Not relevant over fences.

Have We Weighted The Race Correctly?

Key factors here:

1. Recent chase form carries significant weight.


2. Suitability to Worcester and good ground important.


3. Current handicap mark versus peak ability.


4. Fitness is a major factor given several return from lengthy absences.


5. The light rain may slightly help proven soft-ground stayers but should not materially alter conditions.



Non-runners noted: Presentandcounting and Stumps Or Slips are marked NR and should be removed from calculations.


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Runner-by-Runner Assessment

1. Excello FR (7yo) – 7/10 (p)

Going: Versatile
Trip: Stays well enough
Class: Drops significantly in grade

His third over the National fences at Aintree in November remains strong form. However, three subsequent runs have been disappointing and he’s beginning to look expensive to follow. Henderson’s yard is flying and James Bowen rides, but he needs to bounce back.

Positive: Best raw ratings in field.
Concern: Recent form.


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2. Peaky Boy (8yo) – 8/10

Going: Any ground
Trip: Ideal
Class: Well suited

Returned to form when third in a stronger Uttoxeter contest last month. Still fairly treated compared with some of his novice chase form. Reliable stayer and should get a good race setup.

Positive: Proven class edge.
Concern: Hasn’t won for some time.


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3. Grand Clermont FR (10yo) – 8.5/10 (p)

Going: Fine on good despite French heavy-ground profile
Trip: Ideal
Track: Should suit

Uttoxeter win was visually impressive and achieved with plenty in hand. The 10lb rise is fair but not lenient. Pipe has quickly found the key to him and the 5lb claim offsets half the rise.

Positive: Arrives in peak form.
Concern: Significant class rise.


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4. Ideal Des Bordes FR (8yo) – 8/10

Going: Slight ease ideal
Trip: Very suitable
Class: Well treated

Second at Newbury in December reads very well in this field. The issue is a 164-day absence and a profile that has lacked consistency. If reproducing that Newbury run he’s a major player.

Positive: Well handicapped.
Concern: Layoff.


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5. My Bobby Dazzler (11yo) – 7.5/10

Going: Fine
Trip: Strong stayer
Track: Should suit

Veteran who is enjoying a productive spell. Cartmel run was better than finishing position suggests. Consistent and likely to run his race.

Positive: Honest profile.
Concern: Limited upside versus younger rivals.


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6. Bagheera Ginge (8yo) – 7/10 (p)

Going: Good ground suits
Trip: Suitable

Made all at Stratford in first-time visor. May get an uncontested lead but that victory came in a race that hasn’t worked out especially strongly.

Positive: Tactical pace angle.
Concern: Higher grade.


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7. Disco Davis FR (7yo) – 6.5/10 (P)

Going: Versatile
Trip: Unexposed at distance

Interesting outsider. Ran well on stable debut over shorter here and remains relatively unexposed as a staying chaser.

Positive: Potential for improvement.
Concern: Very inconsistent profile.


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8. Samuel Spade GER (7yo) – 6.5/10 (P)

Going: May improve if rain arrives
Trip: Should suit

Pauling’s horse shaped better than result on chase debut over C&D. Jumping lacked fluency but there was encouragement. Open to improvement.

Positive: Second chase start angle.
Concern: Needs sizeable step forward.


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Strongest Contenders

Grand Clermont (p)

Most convincing recent winner in the field. Progressive for current stable and arrives in peak form.

Peaky Boy

Brings stronger established Class 3 form and should be involved throughout.

Ideal Des Bordes

Dangerous if returning in the same form as his Newbury second.

Excello (p)

Possesses arguably the best back-class but comes with obvious risks.


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Interesting Outsiders

My Bobby Dazzler

Consistent and arrives race-fit. Appeals as a solid each-way player.

Samuel Spade (P)

Second start over fences could unlock improvement.

Disco Davis (P)

Unexposed over staying trips and shaped well enough on stable debut.


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Timeform/Profile Notes

Grand Clermont (p): Progressive since joining David Pipe.

Samuel Spade (P): Chasing debut offered promise despite errors.

Disco Davis (P): Unexposed and capable of better.

Excello (p): Back ratings make him dangerous if reviving.



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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Grand Clermont 4/1
Peaky Boy 9/2
Ideal Des Bordes 11/2
Excello 6/1
My Bobby Dazzler 8/1
Bagheera Ginge 10/1
Samuel Spade 12/1
Disco Davis 14/1



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Each-Way Angles (10 runners)

1. My Bobby Dazzler – solid profile, race fitness and staying credentials.


2. Samuel Spade – second-start chaser with scope for improvement.


3. Disco Davis – if the market speaks positively.




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Summary

This revolves around whether Grand Clermont can transfer his dominant Uttoxeter victory into a stronger Class 3 contest. His profile suggests he can, especially with the useful 5lb claim helping offset the handicap rise.

Peaky Boy has the strongest recent class form and looks the main danger, while Ideal Des Bordes is well treated if returning in the same shape as when last seen. Excello remains capable but requires a revival.

Watch the market closely for Ideal Des Bordes, Samuel Spade and Disco Davis, all of whom have profiles where support would be significant.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Grand Clermont – progressive, race-fit, arrives after a convincing win and still looks capable of operating above his current mark.

Each-Way Saver

My Bobby Dazzler – reliable stayer, arrives in form and looks likely to run another solid race at rewarding place terms.

Top Two Bets

1. Grand Clermont – Win


2. My Bobby Dazzler – Each Way (1/5 odds 1-3)