7f 35y, Soft, Handicap, 3yo+ (16 runners, effectively 14 after two NRs shown)

Race Assessment

Leopardstown’s 7f on soft ground places a premium on:

Proven ability to handle ease in the ground.

Finishing strength rather than outright speed.

A sensible position turning for home without getting trapped wide.


Pace Angle

There looks to be a solid pace.

Likely pace influences:

Only One Scobie made all over a mile here last week and is highly likely to go forward again.

Fortuity made all at Fairyhouse.

Meriden has raced prominently during her winning sequence.

Are You In Or Out can race handily.


This should ensure an honest gallop, which may help closers such as Dinamine, Loingseoir and potentially Green Kite.

Draw Angle

With soft ground and a sizeable field, draw bias is often less pronounced than on faster ground.

Low: Fortuity (1), Are You In Or Out (2), Minaun View (3), Lar Na Coille (4)

Middle: Meriden (9), Dinamine (9), Sayfa Fad (10)

High: Green Kite (13), Tawaazon (14), Only One Scobie (15), Loingseoir (16)


High draws can still be workable if obtaining cover. Wide stalls are a bigger issue for hold-up types such as Loingseoir.


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Suitability Analysis

Meriden (P)

Going: Slight question mark on soft.
Field size: Strong positive (won in large fields).
Pace: Versatile.
Class: Improving rapidly.
Track: No Leopardstown experience but profile suggests adaptability.
Distance: Proven.
Trainer/Jockey: Solid combination.

The standout progressive profile in the race. Handicapper has reacted with a 14lb rise but she has won her last two comfortably and may still be ahead of her mark.

Rating: 9/10 (P)


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Only One Scobie (p)

Going: Strong positive; transformed by soft ground last week. Pace: Likely leader. Track: Course winner. Distance: Slight concern dropping back from a mile after dominating. Turnaround: Quick return only seven days later.

A major danger if obtaining an easy lead again, though conditions are less favourable than last week.

Rating: 8.5/10 (p)


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Dinamine

Going: Strong positive. Distance: Proven. Track: No concerns. Handicap mark: Looks workable. Pace setup: Likely to get race run to suit.

An 8yo but arrives with conditions very much in his favour. One of the most solid each-way options.

Rating: 8/10


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Are You In Or Out

Going: Handles soft. Track: C&D winner. Recent form: Won on stable debut after a break. Distance: Fine.

Very interesting despite a 4lb rise. Strong track credentials.

Rating: 8/10


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Green Kite (P)

Going: Soft ground arguably his best surface. Jockey: Colin Keane catches the eye. Mark: Potentially well handicapped. Profile: Unexposed relative to many rivals.

The type who could easily outrun market expectations.

Rating: 7.5/10 (P)


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Fortuity (p)

Going: Significant concern. Progressive: Yes. Pace: May get involved early.

Improving 3yo but all recent progress has come on better ground.

Rating: 7/10 (p)


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Loingseoir

Going: Positive. Pace setup: Positive. Draw: Negative from stall 16. Running style: Hold-up horse needing luck.

Can easily hit the frame but vulnerable to race circumstances.

Rating: 7/10


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Shoot To Kill

Going: Questionable on soft. Current form: Much improved lately. Mark: Competitive.

Ground may stop him from fully capitalising on a favourable mark.

Rating: 6.5/10


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Minaun View

Going: Not proven enough on soft. Maiden status: A concern after 16 starts. Consistency: Improved lately.

Could run respectably without winning.

Rating: 6/10


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Lar Na Coille (P)

Handicap debut: Interesting. Trip: Should suit. Ground: Soft should be fine.

Could improve considerably now handicapping.

Rating: 6/10 (P)


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Free Solo

Formerly useful but current form is weak.

Rating: 5/10


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Tawaazon

Returning from absence and has plenty to prove at 7f.

Rating: 4.5/10


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Charming Whisper

Recent turf efforts poor.

Rating: 4/10


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Sayfa Fad

Off 254 days and stable appears to hold stronger claims elsewhere.

Rating: 3.5/10


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Strongest Contenders

1. Meriden (P)


2. Only One Scobie (p)


3. Dinamine


4. Are You In Or Out



Main Dangers

Green Kite (P)

Fortuity (p)

Loingseoir


Interesting Outsiders

Green Kite – soft-ground maiden form and Colin Keane booked.

Lar Na Coille – first handicap start for the Bolger yard.

Loingseoir – if the pace collapses.



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Hold-Up Horses Requiring Luck

Loingseoir

Dinamine

Green Kite


In a big-field Leopardstown handicap, traffic and draw can be significant for these runners.


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Timeform/Profile Notes

Meriden is the clear progressive runner, winning her last two by widening margins.

Only One Scobie produced a dramatic career-best when allowed to dictate on soft ground.

Green Kite has a soft-ground maiden second that stands out against his handicap form.

Dinamine is now back on his preferred ground and trip.



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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Meriden 4/1
Only One Scobie 5/1
Dinamine 7/1
Are You In Or Out 8/1
Green Kite 10/1
Fortuity 10/1
Loingseoir 12/1
Shoot To Kill 14/1
Lar Na Coille 18/1
Minaun View 20/1
Free Solo 25/1
Tawaazon 33/1
Charming Whisper 40/1
Sayfa Fad 50/1



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Have We Weighed The Race Correctly?

A few factors deserve extra emphasis:

1. Soft-ground ability should carry more weight than usual.


2. Meriden’s rapid improvement may outweigh concerns about her rise in the weights.


3. Only One Scobie’s pace advantage is significant if he gets an uncontested lead.


4. Green Kite’s soft-ground maiden form may be underappreciated.


5. Watch the market closely on Lar Na Coille and Green Kite, both capable of improving beyond current ratings.




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Summary

This looks a race between the progressive Meriden, the recent course winner Only One Scobie, and the soft-ground specialist Dinamine. Are You In Or Out brings proven course form and arrives after a highly encouraging stable debut success, while Green Kite appeals as the most interesting outsider if conditions become testing.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Meriden (P)
The strongest progressive profile in the field and still looks capable of defying a sizeable rise.

Each-Way Saver

Dinamine
Conditions suit perfectly, the handicap mark looks fair, and he should be finishing strongly if the leaders overdo things.

Value Each-Way Alternative

Green Kite (P)
Soft-ground promise, useful jockey booking and potential to be better than his current mark.