7f (7f35y), Soft, 3yo+ | 8 runners

Race Shape, Pace & Draw

Leopardstown’s 7f start provides a fair run into the bend, so extreme draw biases are less pronounced than at some tracks. On soft ground, proven ability to travel and finish strongly in testing conditions is usually more important than stall position.

Likely pace:

Wannabe Royal is the obvious front-runner after making all in a Listed race at Naas.

Oh Cecelia has tactical speed and could race prominently.

East Hampton and Celestial Orbit usually sit handy.

Native Warrior, Audience and Zodiac Bear are more likely to be ridden with patience.


With only eight runners, there should be no severe traffic issues, although hold-up horses still need the pace to develop.

Are We Weighing the Race Correctly?

Key factors for this race:

1. Soft-ground suitability (major factor)


2. Group-race class at 7f


3. Current form


4. Leopardstown suitability


5. Fitness versus potential improvement



No obvious draw angle to significantly alter ratings.

One thing to note is Zodiac Bear’s 364-day absence. His profile screams improvement, but market strength would be significant. Conversely, Audience has the class but arrives badly out of form.


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Runner Assessments

1. Native Warrior – 9/10

Profile: Proven

The highest-rated horse on recent achievements. Excellent soft-ground Ascot handicap winner last autumn and an excellent second in a Saint-Cloud Group 3 on seasonal return. The Naas defeat is easy enough to forgive given how the race developed.

Suitability

Going: 10/10

Distance: 10/10

Class: 9/10

Track: Likely suitable


The most solid form in the field.


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2. Celestial Orbit – 8.5/10

Profile: Proven

Group 3 winner this spring at the Curragh on soft-heavy ground. The return to softer conditions is a major positive and dropping back from a mile looks sensible.

Suitability

Going: 10/10

Distance: 8/10

Class: 8/10


Strong contender if reproducing her April form.


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3. East Hampton – 8/10

Profile: Proven

Very reliable soft-ground performer. Ran a huge race when second in the Gladness Stakes and previously split high-class opposition in Group company.

Suitability

Going: 9/10

Distance: 10/10

Track: Proven

Class: 8/10


Looks sure to run his race.


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4. Oh Cecelia – 7.5/10 p

Profile: Progressive

Comes here after a cracking effort behind Havana Anna in the Lacken Stakes. Receives a useful weight-for-age allowance.

The concern is obvious: all her best form has come at 5f-6f and this is her first attempt at 7f.

Suitability

Going: 9/10

Distance: 6/10

Class: 8/10


Could improve again but has to prove stamina.


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5. Zodiac Bear – 8/10 P

Profile: Promising

Perhaps the most interesting horse in the race. His maiden win over this C&D was visually impressive and he shaped extremely well when third in this race last year.

Lightly raced and open to plenty of improvement.

Suitability

Going: 9/10

Distance: 10/10

Track: 10/10


The obvious concern is the year-long absence. Watch the market closely.


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6. Wannabe Royal – 6.5/10

Profile: Progressive

Produced a career-best when making all in Listed company at Naas.

Could get an uncontested lead, which always makes a horse dangerous, but she needs another sizeable step forward to win this.

Suitability

Going: 8/10

Distance: 8/10

Pace setup: Positive



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7. Audience – 5/10

Profile: Proven (formerly)

A Group 1 winner at his peak and the classiest horse historically. However, his recent form figures are deeply concerning and there has been little sign of a revival.

Suitability

Distance: Fine

Going: Fine

Current form: Major concern


Needs a dramatic turnaround.


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8. Redemption Road – 6.5/10 p

Profile: Progressive

Ran very well when third in a Leopardstown Group 3 earlier in the season. Conditions should suit.

Looks more likely to place than win against older established Group performers.


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Strongest Contenders

Native Warrior

Best recent Group form, proven soft-ground performer and easy to forgive latest defeat.

Celestial Orbit

Group 3 winner on testing ground and conditions look ideal.

East Hampton

Very solid Leopardstown and soft-ground credentials.

Zodiac Bear (P)

The potential improver. If returning fully fit, could easily outrun his profile.


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Main Dangers

Celestial Orbit

East Hampton

Zodiac Bear



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Interesting Outsiders

Oh Cecelia (p)

Weight allowance and progressive profile make her dangerous if she stays.

Redemption Road (p)

Likely to appreciate conditions and could sneak into the frame.


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Hold-Up Risk / Luck in Running

Native Warrior

Zodiac Bear

Audience


Small field reduces traffic concerns but they still need a genuinely-run race.


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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Native Warrior 11/4
Celestial Orbit 4/1
East Hampton 5/1
Zodiac Bear 13/2
Oh Cecelia 8/1
Wannabe Royal 12/1
Redemption Road 16/1
Audience 20/1



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Summary

Soft ground is the dominant factor and Native Warrior possesses the strongest blend of proven Group form, 7f ability and testing-ground credentials. Celestial Orbit and East Hampton are respected, while Zodiac Bear is the fascinating runner returning from a year off after shaping so well in this race last season.

Market moves on Zodiac Bear would be particularly noteworthy given the absence.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Native Warrior – strongest recent form, conditions ideal, latest run easy to excuse.

Each-Way Saver

Zodiac Bear (P) – only if suitable each-way terms are available elsewhere. He has the profile of a horse capable of improving beyond his current rating and was an eye-catching third in this race last year.

Predicted 1-2-3

1. Native Warrior


2. Zodiac Bear


3. Celestial Orbit