14 runners | 3yo+ Fillies & Mares Handicap | 1m1f | Soft

Race Assessment

Going

The forecast soft ground looks a significant factor. Proven effectiveness on testing conditions should carry extra weight here given Leopardstown can become quite demanding when rain arrives.

Strong soft-ground credentials:

Spanish Temptress

Great Mover

Electric Beauty

Justenzia

Speckled Meadow


Question marks:

Marmeladova (soft unknown)

Tachos (best form on sounder surfaces)

Lady Chartwell (Irish turf debut)



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Pace Analysis

The obvious pace angle is:

Electric Beauty – regularly ridden prominently and likely to force matters.

Tachos can sit handy.

Spanish Temptress generally races prominently enough.


This does not look an overly strong gallop despite Electric Beauty’s presence. Leopardstown over this trip often favours those positioned handily rather than exaggerated hold-up performers.

Likely pace advantage: Prominent racers and midfield runners with tactical speed.


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Draw Analysis

Over 1m1f at Leopardstown on soft ground, draw is generally less important than pace and position.

Notable stalls:

Low: Speckled Meadow (1), Lady Chartwell (2), Anvika (3)

Wide: Spanish Temptress (13), Tachos (14)


The wide draws are manageable at this trip, though Spanish Temptress and Tachos will need sensible rides early.


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Class Assessment

The strongest recent handicap form belongs to:

1. Spanish Temptress


2. Great Mover


3. Electric Beauty



Potentially well handicapped:

Marmeladova (P) on handicap debut.



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Runner-by-Runner Ratings

1. Spanish Temptress – 8.5/10

Three-time handicap winner last season. Unlucky in defeat twice this year and arrives off a Gowran second where she arguably should have won. Proven on soft and remains in excellent heart.

Type: Proven


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2. Great Mover – 8.5/10 p

Returned to form with a solid Leopardstown third over 7f last week. Soft ground suits and the step back up to 1m1f looks a major positive. The expected pace scenario could play directly into her strengths.

Type: Progressive (p)


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3. Electric Beauty – 8/10

Likely pace setter. Course winner, thrives on testing conditions and has been running consistently throughout the season. May get an uncontested lead.

Type: Proven


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4. Marmeladova – 7.5/10 P

Interesting handicap debutante. Ballinrobe maiden win was visually impressive and her peak RPRs suggest she’s potentially better than her mark. Ground remains the unknown.

Type: Promising (P)


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5. Justenzia – 6.5/10

Two good runs before a complete flop at Gowran. Conditions suit and she could easily bounce back. Not straightforward to trust.

Type: Proven


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6. Speckled Meadow – 6/10

Veteran course winner. Nicely drawn and capable if returning to last autumn’s level, but younger rivals appear stronger.

Type: Proven


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7. She’s Ideal – 6/10

Consistent in lower-grade handicaps. May run respectably again but this represents a stronger contest. Place claims.

Type: Proven


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8. Lamberella – 5.5/10 P

Lightly raced 3yo. Shapes as though this trip may suit and receives a useful age allowance. Needs marked improvement.

Type: Promising (P)


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9. Tachos – 5.5/10

Course-and-distance winner but soft ground may not be ideal. Wide draw and disappointing comeback effort leave questions.

Type: Proven


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10. Anvika – 4.5/10

Dangerously handicapped on old form but current form profile is weak and testing conditions are a concern.

Type: Proven


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11. Finsceal Annie – 5.5/10

Dual Leopardstown winner. Stable form is encouraging. Market support would be highly significant after two quiet runs.

Type: Proven


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12. Codice – 2/10

Very difficult to recommend on recent Irish form.


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13. Lady Chartwell – 3/10

Previous UK winner but little encouragement from recent efforts and first Irish turf run.


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14. Rocket Robyn – 3/10

Heavy-ground maiden second last year offers some hope but handicap form has been poor.


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Strongest Contenders

Spanish Temptress

The most solid profile in the race. Running to a consistently high level and looks well suited by conditions.

Great Mover (p)

Interesting return to form at Leopardstown and today’s extra distance could unlock further improvement.

Electric Beauty

Likely race leader and proven in the conditions.


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Main Dangers

Marmeladova (P)

Justenzia

Finsceal Annie (if backed)



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Interesting Outsiders

Marmeladova (P)

Handicap debut, highest ceiling among several runners, and could easily prove better than her opening mark.

Finsceal Annie

Course specialist whose trainer has shown signs of returning to form. Market signals important.


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Hold-Up Risks

No extreme hold-up performers stand out, but:

Great Mover may require gaps if ridden patiently.

Lamberella tends to come from off the pace and could need luck.



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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Spanish Temptress 4/1
Great Mover 9/2
Electric Beauty 11/2
Marmeladova 7/1
Justenzia 10/1
Finsceal Annie 12/1
Speckled Meadow 14/1
She’s Ideal 14/1
Tachos 16/1
Lamberella 20/1
Anvika 25/1
Rocket Robyn 40/1
Lady Chartwell 50/1
Codice 66/1



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Have We Weighted The Race Correctly?

For this contest I would place extra emphasis on:

1. Soft-ground form.


2. Current handicap form.


3. Leopardstown suitability.


4. Pace position.



Less emphasis than usual on draw.

No obvious non-runner concerns apparent from the card provided.


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Summary

This looks a race between the proven recent handicap form of Spanish Temptress, the potentially well-treated Great Mover, and the pace influence Electric Beauty. Soft ground is likely to expose any stamina or ground concerns and should bring the most reliable testing-ground performers to the fore.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Great Mover (p)
Returned to form at Leopardstown, receives ideal conditions and the move back up to 1m1f looks the key angle.

Saver / Each-Way Bet

Spanish Temptress
Ultra-consistent, unlucky on multiple recent starts and very likely to run her race again. Strong each-way option with four places available.