Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap (7f) Class: Handicap Runners: 9 Going: Soft

Race Shape, Pace & Draw

This looks a race where pace could be important. The most obvious forward-going runner is Greydreambeliever, who likes to attack from the front and has landed a favourable draw in stall 2. Gowran’s 7f on soft ground can reward those securing a prominent position early, especially if the field becomes strung out.

Likely pace angles:

Greydreambeliever – likely leader.

Pink Oxalis – can race prominently.

Rion Rubette – usually sits handy enough.

Luna Mia – should be able to track the pace.


With only nine runners, draw bias is less pronounced than in larger fields, but low-to-middle draws look slightly advantageous if the ground rides testing.

Have We Weighed The Race Correctly?

No obvious non-runners listed.

Soft-ground suitability deserves extra weighting here.

Previous C&D soft-ground form is particularly strong evidence.

The April C&D handicap looks the key piece of form, involving Rion Rubette, Greydreambeliever, Pink Oxalis and Gloriously Glam.

Pace may favour Greydreambeliever, but handicapping still leaves Rion Rubette competitive despite the rise.



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Runner-by-Runner Ratings

1. Greydreambeliever (8.5/10) p

Suitability: Track 9/10 | Distance 9/10 | Going 9/10

Excellent start for Joseph O’Brien after arriving from Britain. Two strong Gowran runs on soft ground before finding Listed company beyond her. Front-running style suits this race and draw. Still looks progressive.

2. Luna Mia (8/10) P

Suitability: Track 7/10 | Distance 8/10 | Going 9/10

Trainer believes she is best with ease underfoot. Smart juvenile form and likely to improve from last week’s seasonal return. Receives a useful weight-for-age allowance. Unexposed profile.

3. Rion Rubette (8.5/10)

Suitability: Track 10/10 | Distance 10/10 | Going 10/10

C&D winner on soft in April, beating several of today’s rivals. The handicapper’s 3lb rise looks fair and she remains very effective under these conditions. Proven and reliable.

4. Fast Tara (5.5/10)

Suitability: Track 7/10 | Distance 8/10 | Going 7/10

Consistent enough but only one win from 27 starts is difficult to overlook. Coming here after a poor Listed effort. Place claims more than win claims.

5. Solana Beach (7.5/10) P

Suitability: Track 8/10 | Distance 8/10 | Going 8/10

Interesting handicap debutante. Her C&D maiden second on soft has worked out well. Could easily improve beyond current mark. One of the more intriguing runners.

6. Greek Flower (4.5/10)

Suitability: Track 7/10 | Distance 8/10 | Going 8/10

Long losing run remains a concern. Ran well on seasonal return but subsequent efforts have been disappointing. Needs a revival.

7. Pink Oxalis (7.5/10)

Suitability: Track 9/10 | Distance 8/10 | Going 9/10

Course winner on soft. Ran a career-best handicap performance last season and was only narrowly behind Rion Rubette over C&D in April. Top weight asks a question but she’s respected.

8. Una Matata (5/10)

Suitability: Track 6/10 | Distance 8/10 | Going 4/10

AW specialist whose recent turf effort was encouraging. However, soft ground looks a significant negative.

9. Gloriously Glam (6.5/10)

Suitability: Track 8/10 | Distance 8/10 | Going 8/10

Fourth behind several of these in April before winning a C&D claimer. Fairly treated and capable of running into the places again.


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Strongest Contenders

Rion Rubette

Proven C&D winner on soft.

Strongest recent piece of course form.

Conditions ideal.


Greydreambeliever p

Progressive profile.

Excellent draw and likely pace advantage.

Joseph O’Brien yard in excellent form.


Luna Mia P

Potentially the class angle.

Soft ground strongly in her favour.

Open to considerable improvement from her comeback run.



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Main Dangers

Pink Oxalis – course specialist, well treated if reproducing best form.

Solana Beach (P) – handicap debut could unlock improvement.



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Interesting Outsider

Solana Beach (P)

The handicap debut angle is significant. Her maiden form ties in well with today’s conditions and she remains one of the least exposed runners in the field.


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Hold-Up Risk / Needs Luck In Running

Luna Mia can be ridden with patience and may need gaps at the right time.

Una Matata often requires things to fall right and is not the quickest away.

Solana Beach remains inexperienced and could still be learning.



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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Greydreambeliever 7/2
Rion Rubette 4/1
Luna Mia 9/2
Solana Beach 7/1
Pink Oxalis 8/1
Gloriously Glam 10/1
Fast Tara 14/1
Greek Flower 16/1
Una Matata 18/1



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Each-Way Angles (9 runners, 3 places)

1. Solana Beach – handicap debut and unexposed profile.


2. Pink Oxalis – proven course performer likely to run her race again.




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Summary

The April C&D handicap remains the strongest form guide and again points firmly towards Rion Rubette, Greydreambeliever and Pink Oxalis. Of those, Greydreambeliever may get the ideal tactical setup from the front and still has scope to improve. Rion Rubette is the proven course-and-distance specialist and should be right there once more. Luna Mia is the unknown quantity capable of taking a sizeable step forward on suitable ground.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Selection

Greydreambeliever – progressive profile, ideal draw, likely pace advantage, and excellent recent Gowran soft-ground form.

Saver / Each-Way

Solana Beach (P) – unexposed handicap debutante with strong soft-ground C&D maiden form and potential to improve significantly from her opening mark.