St Austell Brewery Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
Class 3, 3m2f, Good ground, 5yo+ Novice Handicap Chase
Runners: 4 (Win only market)

Race Assessment

Going Suitability

The going is officially Good.

Rickety Bridge – proven on good at Newton Abbot, both chase wins achieved under these conditions.

Court In A Storm – all recent best form on good ground; conditions ideal.

Dexperts Opinion – won on good at Worcester last time and handles decent ground well.

La Pinsonniere – versatile regarding ground.


Field Size Suitability

A four-runner tactical affair.

Rickety Bridge has already won in a 4-runner chase here.

Court In A Storm has form in small fields and jumps accurately.

La Pinsonniere often races in larger fields and may find this tactical.

Dexperts Opinion is less exposed and difficult to assess fully in this scenario.


Forecast Pace

Likely pace looks modest.

Possible leader:

Court In A Storm or Rickety Bridge may take it up.


In small-field staying chases at Newton Abbot, prominent racers are often favoured because there is little traffic and limited pace collapse.

Advantage:

1. Rickety Bridge


2. Court In A Storm



Draw Bias

Not applicable (jumps race).

Pace & Tactical Suitability

A steadily-run race would favour:

Rickety Bridge

Court In A Storm


Potential concern:

Dexperts Opinion may need a stronger test if held up.


Class Suitability

La Pinsonniere has consistently contested stronger races and possesses the highest established hurdle rating.

Court In A Storm and Rickety Bridge look well suited to this grade.

Dexperts Opinion is moving up in class after a lower-grade hurdle success.


Track Suitability

Newton Abbot form is valuable.

Rickety Bridge: 2 wins from 2 chase starts here including C&D.

Court In A Storm: no Newton Abbot form but profile suggests suitability.

Dexperts Opinion: first run at the track.

La Pinsonniere: first run here.


Distance Suitability

Rickety Bridge has already won twice around this trip.

Court In A Storm shaped as though this distance would suit.

Dexperts Opinion won over 2m7f and stays.

La Pinsonniere shaped as though stamina is not an issue beyond 3m.


Temperament

No major concerns.

Court In A Storm’s fencing debut was professional.

Rickety Bridge has looked straightforward since switching to fences.


Trainer & Jockey

Paul Nicholls/Freddie Gingell are operating effectively and have a strong Newton Abbot record.

Mickey Bowen/James Bowen command respect.

Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls have their horse progressing.

Nicky Henderson/Nico de Boinville always demand consideration despite top weight.



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Have We Weighted The Race Correctly?

This race revolves around:

1. Proven chasing ability


2. Newton Abbot suitability


3. Stamina over 3m2f


4. Tactical position in a four-runner field



Because it is such a small field, I would place more emphasis than normal on proven chase form and tactical pace position, and slightly less on pure ratings.

No non-runners are shown.


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Runner Ratings

1. Rickety Bridge (p)

Rating: 8.8/10

Two from two over fences.

Course-and-distance winner.

Highest Timeform Speed figure in the field.

Still improving over fences.

Small-field tactics suit.


The most solid profile in the race.


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2. Court In A Storm (p)

Rating: 8.2/10

Excellent chase debut.

Consistent staying handicap hurdle performer.

Strong jumper.

Open to further progress over fences.


Main danger.


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3. Dexperts Opinion (P)

Rating: 7.9/10

Promising chasing recruit.

Worcester hurdle win suggested improvement remains.

Lightly raced over fences.


Could easily step forward but lacks the proven chasing credentials of the top two.


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4. La Pinsonniere

Rating: 7.4/10

Classiest hurdle profile.

Top weight.

Returns to fences after a long absence from the discipline.

Handicap mark looks demanding.


Capable but needs to show immediate chasing improvement.


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Strongest Contenders

Rickety Bridge (p)

Everything about his profile fits:

Track

Distance

Going

Field size

Chase experience


The safest option.

Court In A Storm (p)

Likely to improve from chase debut and could get very close if taking another step forward.


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Main Danger

Dexperts Opinion (P)

The unknown quantity.

His Worcester success for Mickey Bowen hinted that the stable may have unlocked improvement and his French background suggests chasing could prove his game.


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Interesting Angle

La Pinsonniere

Highest-rated horse on hurdle form and receives the services of Nico de Boinville. If the market strengthens markedly, that would be noteworthy given her limited chase experience.


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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Rickety Bridge 2/1
Court In A Storm 11/4
Dexperts Opinion 3/1
La Pinsonniere 9/2


Very tightly matched race behind the selection.


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Race Preview

A fascinating novice handicap chase despite only four runners. The pace is unlikely to be strong, which should suit those racing prominently. Rickety Bridge has already demonstrated exactly how to win this type of race around Newton Abbot, producing two strong staying performances over fences including a course-and-distance success last month. A 4lb rise appears manageable given the scope for further progress.

Court In A Storm made an encouraging start over fences when runner-up at Worcester and looks certain to win races in this sphere. His jumping was sound and this longer trip should suit.

Dexperts Opinion arrives after an improved effort for his new yard and is the least exposed runner. If transferring his hurdle revival to fences he becomes a genuine threat.

La Pinsonniere brings the strongest hurdle form but has to concede weight all round and must prove herself over fences after a long absence from chasing.


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Smart Plays

Win Selection

Rickety Bridge (8.8/10)

Most proven under today’s exact conditions and remains progressive over fences.

Saver

Court In A Storm (8.2/10)

Likely improver after a promising chase debut and rates the biggest danger if stepping forward again.

Predicted finishing order:

1. Rickety Bridge (p)


2. Court In A Storm (p)


3. Dexperts Opinion (P)


4. La Pinsonniere



No each-way recommendation due to the four-runner field and win-only terms.