12:45 Newmarket July — Handicap Preview

The 12:45 at Newmarket’s July Course is a competitive 7f Class 3 handicap, and the key point is that Silver Ghost is a non-runner, leaving a 10-runner field on good ground.

The market has latched on to Aalto, and that is understandable. His course-and-distance record is excellent, including a Bunbury Cup win and a narrow defeat in the same race off higher marks. He is clearly well handicapped and Ryan Moore keeps the ride. The concern is his run style: he is usually held up and can need gaps. From stall 1, that could either work perfectly or leave him trapped when the race develops. He is the most likely winner, but not a value price at around 7/4 or 2/1.

The race shape could be important. Nostrum is the obvious pace angle, with Northern Express, Mudbir and I Still Have Faith also capable of racing close enough. Newmarket July over 7f has historically been kinder to front-runners and prominent racers than deep closers, so Aalto’s supporters will want a solid pace and clear passage.

Mudbir is the fascinating alternative. He was progressive last season and won three of his first seven starts, but he disappointed badly when favourite for the Victoria Cup. He has since been gelded, and that gives him a possible reset angle. His tactical speed is a plus, but he is still short enough in the betting given that Ascot flop.

The most appealing value may be Superposition. He is not straightforward and can hang under pressure, but he won well on the Rowley Mile last time, beating the now-absent Silver Ghost. A 3lb rise is fair, and he has enough ability to trouble the principals if reproducing that effort. Around 8/1, he makes more appeal than the front two.

I Still Have Faith is another worth keeping on side. He was below form at Newbury last time, but earlier efforts suggested he was on a workable mark. He often travels well and has not always had things fall right. At double-figure odds, he is more interesting than his bare form might suggest.

Of the others, Northern Express remains capable but may need the run after a break. Philanthropist is reliable and arrives in fair form, though this probably demands a career best. Darkness is becoming well handicapped and the return of the visor is interesting, but recent form leaves him risky. Dark Tornado looks opposable, especially as he is due to drop 2lb.

Verdict

Aalto is the horse to beat, but his price leaves little margin for error. Mudbir is a danger if gelding has sharpened him up, but the better betting angle is Superposition, who looks capable of running above his odds.

Selection: Superposition each-way
Main danger: Aalto
Value outsider: I Still Have Faith