Irish Dancer Can Make Pace Count at Nottingham

The 13:00 Nottingham, a 5f Class 6 handicap on good ground, looks a race where early speed could prove decisive. With Get Up Everybody declared a non-runner, only six go to post, and the shape of the contest now strongly favours those able to race close to the pace.

The key angle is simple: Nottingham’s 5f track has historically rewarded front-runners and prominent racers. That immediately brings Irish Dancer into focus. He arrives in good heart, having won at Catterick last month before going very close at Thirsk nine days ago. He has the tactical pace to lead or sit handy, and in this small field he may be hard to pass if getting into rhythm.

The obvious danger is Invincible Crown, who was arguably unlucky in that same Thirsk race. He was short of room, finished strongly, and may well have more to offer from his current mark. The concern is tactical: he tends to be ridden patiently, and hold-up horses can be vulnerable over Nottingham’s sharp 5f if the leaders do not come back.

Beerwah is another to consider. His last two runs have been below his spring best, but his Redcar win and Doncaster second read well in this grade. He could get an ideal stalking position behind Irish Dancer and Doralee, making him a fair value alternative if the front two in the market are short enough.

Of the others, Doralee has speed but often weakens late, while Comedian Leader is more effective over further and needs a strong pace collapse. Sergeant Mayer is well handicapped but has shown little in three starts this season.

The race may revolve around whether Doralee pressures Irish Dancer early. If Irish Dancer gets control, he looks the most likely winner. If they overdo it, Invincible Crown becomes a serious threat late. At the prices, Beerwah may be the one underestimated.

Verdict: Irish Dancer is the most likely winner, Invincible Crown is the main danger, and Beerwah appeals as the value option at around 5/1 or bigger.