Per Contra Has the Right Profile for Newcastle Return

The 15:12 at Newcastle is a strong Class 2 1m2f handicap on the Tapeta, and it has the look of a race where the favourite may be good, but not necessarily good value.

Eternal Force sets the standard on recent form. William Haggas’s gelding was progressive last season, ran respectably in the Lincoln, and was only narrowly denied at Hamilton last time. He is the most likely winner, but his price is short for a horse making his all-weather debut and stepping back up to 1m2f in a deep handicap.

The more appealing betting case is Per Contra. He is already proven over course and distance, having won here last autumn off only 1lb lower, and his last two turf runs have been solid efforts in competitive races. Back on Tapeta, from a workable mark, he looks set to run his race.

The race shape could suit a closer. Cloth Of Gold, Haku and Will Scarlet may help ensure a fair tempo, while Eternal Force should sit handy. That gives the likes of Per Contra, The Glen Rovers and Rainbow Nebula a proper target.

The Glen Rovers is especially interesting back at Newcastle. He is 2-2 over course and distance and can be forgiven his latest turf run. At double-figure odds, he makes more appeal than several shorter-priced rivals.

Cloth Of Gold is another to note. He won over this course and distance last year and may improve for his comeback run, though this is a tougher assignment. Jolly Jack Tar has ability and goes well fresh, but after 331 days off he is more of a market watch than a firm betting proposition.

The one to beat is Eternal Force, but the bet is Per Contra, with The Glen Rovers a lively each-way alternative.

Verdict: Per Contra
Value angle: The Glen Rovers
Favourite view: Eternal Force respected but short enough