Pace Could Decide the 17:32 Newcastle Handicap

The 17:32 at Newcastle is a competitive 5f Class 5 handicap for three-year-olds, and the key to the race looks likely to be pace. Newcastle’s straight 5f on Tapeta often rewards speed, and the supplied track data backs that up: front-runners have performed notably well over this course and distance.

That immediately brings I’m Dan Dare into the centre of the conversation. Mark Walford’s gelding made all at Catterick before running a strong second at York, form that has since been boosted. A 5lb rise asks another question, and this is his first start on the all-weather, but his recent profile is hard to knock.

The main danger may be The Tunguska Event, another forward-going type with proven Newcastle form. His best efforts have come over 6f, but he has shown enough early speed to suggest this drop to 5f may not be a major issue.

Two others make plenty of each-way appeal. Brave Traveller is much more interesting back at Newcastle after a below-par turf run, having finished a good second over course and distance in May. Contorno is also worth noting, as both his handicap wins came over this C&D and he now returns to the Tapeta after struggling on turf.

Of the rest, Yellow Diamonds is gradually coming back to form but needs to reverse York form with I’m Dan Dare. Record Day is unexposed but may find 5f sharp, while Ice Cold Alex and Under The Radar have speed but carry late-weakening concerns.

The race looks bettable only at the right prices. I’m Dan Dare is the most likely winner, but at around 5/2 he looks close to fair rather than generous. The better value may lie with Brave Traveller or Contorno, especially if available at each-way prices.

Verdict:
Most likely winner: I’m Dan Dare
Best value: Brave Traveller
Dark horse: Contorno