5.40 Naas – ARKequine Handicap (0-60) Preview

A typically competitive Naas 5f handicap with 23 runners declared, but the race becomes more interesting when viewed through the lens of the track’s long-term pace profile.

While Timeform expects a very strong pace, historical data from Naas 5f races suggests that is not necessarily a negative for horses racing on the speed. Over the last 400 races at this track and trip, front-runners have won at nearly 20% and prominent racers at over 13%, while hold-up performers have struggled badly. The key is often not finding the horse that comes from last, but identifying the pace horse capable of surviving the early battle.

Happy Henry heads the market after a comfortable victory in a 21-runner handicap at Navan earlier this month. That success looked the performance of a horse in peak form, and although he must cope with an 8lb rise, his ability to race prominently is a significant asset around Naas. Drawn in stall 10, he looks to have a good opportunity to secure a favourable early position and rates the most likely winner.

Steel Magnolia is another whose profile is enhanced by the track statistics. She has returned in good form this season, finishing close up in competitive sprint handicaps, and has been eased a further 3lb by the handicapper. Drawn low in stall 3 and likely to be involved from the outset, she appeals as one of the better-value contenders in the field.

The unexposed Hooves Your Daddy remains of interest for an in-form yard. She was not beaten far at Fairyhouse last time and shaped better than the bare result having met trouble in running. However, her wide draw in stall 20 may force her to expend energy early, and she may need to improve again to overcome both that and the track’s historical bias towards prominent racers.

Hero Of The Hour is another to consider after an encouraging stable debut at Fairyhouse. The return to 5f should suit, and his low draw in stall 2 gives him every chance to adopt a handy position. His profile suggests he could easily outrun his odds.

Whatswrongnow has been running consistently well at this level and arrives off another placed effort, but he remains a maiden after 28 starts. He has the form to be involved, though his lack of winning habit tempers enthusiasm at a relatively short price.

Of the outsiders, Ballysax Lil Mick is not without hope. He shaped better than the result behind Happy Henry at Navan on his seasonal return and could improve for that outing, while Livingston Range has been running respectably from basement marks and may not be far away if things fall right.

Verdict

The Naas pace data points firmly towards horses capable of racing prominently, and that strengthens the claims of Happy Henry, who arrives in the best form in the race and has a favourable draw to exploit.

Steel Magnolia rates the main danger, with her low draw and proven effectiveness at the trip making her an attractive each-way option.

Predicted 1-2-3

1. Happy Henry
2. Steel Magnolia
3. Hero Of The Hour

Value Angle

Steel Magnolia – likely to be underestimated given the strength of the Naas 5f pace bias and her advantageous draw.