18:45 Leicester: Berning Hot looks the value in a tricky 7f handicap

The 18:45 at Leicester is a competitive Class 6 handicap over 7f on good-to-firm ground, and it is not a race with a bombproof favourite. No Gain arrives in the best recent form and is clearly respected, but at short odds she looks more like the most likely winner than the best bet.

The key angle is race shape. Leicester’s 7f handicaps have historically favoured horses racing prominently, with front-runners performing much better than hold-up types. That matters here because several runners prefer to come from off the pace, including Call Glory, Mini Mac, Dancing With Drums and potentially No Gain. If the race is not strongly run, some of the closers could be left with too much to do.

Berning Hot is the interesting one at the prices. Her recent form does not leap off the page, but she returns to a notably suitable setup: 7f, sound turf, Class 6 company, and a mark from which she has already won. Her Kempton second two starts ago suggested her turn may not be far away, and her Beverly run over further can be forgiven more readily. At double-figure odds, she makes more appeal than the shorter-priced runners.

Mini Mac is another to keep onside. His C&D second last month on good-to-firm ground reads well in the context of this race, and his Doncaster defeat over 1m is easy enough to excuse. He is not thrown in, but conditions look right and he should be competitive if reproducing that Leicester effort.

Midnight’s Dream has strong course credentials and shaped better at Doncaster last time, but he can be awkward tactically and may need the race to unfold kindly. Bass Player is a speculative outsider: he is well treated and has run well from the front before, but recent efforts make him hard to trust.

The favourite No Gain is hard to knock on form. She has won and twice gone close recently, but a 4lb rise for a narrow defeat means she now needs to prove she is still ahead of the assessor. At around 7/4, there is little margin for error.

Verdict

This is a playable race, but only at the right prices. Berning Hot looks the value each-way, with Mini Mac respected as the solid C&D form horse. No Gain is the most likely winner, but too short to recommend.

Selection: Berning Hot each-way
Main danger: Mini Mac
Favourite to oppose at the price: No Gain