Phantom Watch sets the standard in Newmarket’s 18:25 handicap

The 18:25 at Newmarket’s July Course is a Class 5 mile handicap that looks centred around one question: can Phantom Watch back up last week’s course-and-distance success under a penalty?

The answer may be yes, but the price matters.

Phantom Watch produced the standout recent performance in this field when winning over this same mile last week. Held up towards the rear, he made smooth late progress and finished powerfully up the stiff Newmarket climb. That style is a good fit for the July Course, and his Racing Post Rating of 80 from that win is the best recent figure on offer here. He carries a 6lb penalty, but with his official mark due to rise by the same amount, he is not obviously badly treated.

The main danger is Daretobedifferent, who brings the most reliable profile. She has run well in three of her last four starts, winning at Nottingham before finding 1m1f on soft ground just beyond her at Lingfield. Back at a mile on good to firm ground, she has fewer doubts than most and should be involved again.

The race shape could also suit closers. Double Time is the likely pace angle from stall one, but he returns from a break and has shown his best turf form with more ease in the ground. If he takes them along without getting loose, the race may set up for horses coming from off the pace.

That brings Just Typical into the conversation. His recent all-weather form is uninspiring, and the absence of usual headgear is a small concern, but his best turf form gives him a chance. He was a strong winner at Redcar last year and has repeatedly shaped as though a stiff mile suits. At double-figure odds, he is more interesting than his bare recent form suggests.

Norcross Brow is another to note. He is still a maiden, but he has shown enough on the all-weather to think a race of this type is within reach. His final run for his previous yard came with excuses, and he now starts out for Charlie Clover. He is not bombproof, but he has more upside than several.

The rest have something to prove. Poke The Bear is effective on the all-weather but still needs to show the same level on turf. Big Alex Walmsley has not yet looked well treated in handicaps. Khuskhas has struggled since her maiden win, while Hour By Hour has been badly out of form and is stepping well away from his best sprinting conditions.

Overall, Phantom Watch is the most likely winner, but he is no betting certainty at very short odds. Daretobedifferent is the solid alternative, while Just Typical appeals as the value angle if available at a generous price.

Verdict: Phantom Watch to win, with Just Typical the each-way/value alternative.