Diamond Rain Sets the Standard in Newcastle’s Hoppings Stakes

The 18:53 Newcastle, the JenningsBet In Delves Hoppings Fillies’ Stakes, brings together a compact but interesting field of seven fillies and mares over 1m2f on Tapeta. The race is headed by last year’s winner Diamond Rain, who returns to the scene of one of her most convincing performances.

Diamond Rain is the clear form horse. After winning this race last season, she went on to run with credit at the highest level in North America, finishing placed in two Grade 1 races. Her reappearance at York was not her peak form, but it was far from poor: she travelled into the race, briefly looked dangerous, and then faded late. That suggested she may have needed the run. Back at Newcastle, over a course and distance she handles, she is the one they all have to beat.

The main question is whether the race will be run to suit her. There is not an abundance of guaranteed pace, and several of the stronger contenders prefer to finish off their races. That could make the early positioning important. Dreamasar may be the tactical key. She is lightly raced, improving, and comes here after winning a Listed race at Haydock. She has shown enough speed and versatility to sit handy, and if she gets first run turning for home she could make Diamond Rain work hard.

Botagoz is another fascinating runner. As a three-year-old she receives plenty of weight, and her Listed third at York over a mile strongly hinted that this longer trip could suit. She still needs a sizeable step forward on ratings, but her profile is upwardly mobile. She looks like a filly to keep onside, even if this might come slightly early in her development.

Sky Safari brings strong all-weather credentials. She won the Winter Derby at Lingfield and has an excellent record on artificial surfaces. Her Chester defeat can be forgiven in a hotter race on turf, and returning to AW is a positive. The issue is her 3lb penalty, which leaves her needing to produce something close to a career best.

Of the outsiders, Ashariba is honest and has useful Listed form, but she may need softer turf conditions to show her very best. Alla Stella remains lightly raced and could outrun her odds if improving again over 1m2f, while Uluru needs a revival after a run of below-par efforts.

This looks a race where the favourite is hard to oppose but not necessarily easy to back at short odds. Diamond Rain has the best form, the right track profile, and clear upside from her reappearance. However, if the race becomes tactical, Dreamasar and Botagoz have enough progression to make things interesting.

Verdict: Diamond Rain is the most likely winner, but Dreamasar makes most appeal as the value alternative if the market allows. Botagoz is the notebook horse for future races over this sort of trip.