Thundering On Faces New Questions in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh

The 2026 Paddy Power Pretty Polly Stakes (Group 1) brings together one of the most intriguing fields of the Irish summer, with Classic-winning three-year-old Thundering On taking on a strong team of older mares over ten furlongs at the Curragh.

While the market has understandably focused on the Joseph O’Brien-trained filly following her impressive victory in the Oaks at Epsom, Saturday’s contest is far from a straightforward coronation. The race presents a different challenge entirely, with a drop back in trip, quicker ground, and battle-hardened older rivals all posing questions that she has yet to answer.

Oaks Heroine Seeks to Extend Her Rise

Thundering On has progressed rapidly this season. After landing a Group 3 at Navan, she produced a polished display in the Oaks, travelling strongly before asserting in the closing stages to defeat a high-class field.

The daughter of Frankel also boasts a notable pedigree connection to this race, being out of Thundering Nights, who captured the Pretty Polly Stakes in 2021.

Her Oaks success established her as one of the leading middle-distance fillies of her generation, but the move back to 1m2f introduces a new dimension. While she showed enough pace at Navan to suggest the distance is within range, much of her strongest work has come when stamina has been a decisive factor. The good-to-firm ground is another variable, as both her major victories this season came on easier surfaces.

Nevertheless, she receives a valuable weight allowance from the older mares and arrives with the strongest recent form in the race.

Estrange Heads the Older Division

If Thundering On is vulnerable, Estrange appears the most obvious candidate to exploit it.

David O’Meara’s talented grey enjoyed an excellent 2025 campaign, winning at Group level before finishing runner-up in both the Yorkshire Oaks and British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes. Those performances established her as one of Europe’s leading older mares.

She returned this season with a straightforward success at Carlisle and has already demonstrated that fast ground holds no fears. The concern for her supporters is whether this sharper ten-furlong test plays fully to her strengths. Most of her best efforts have come over twelve furlongs where stamina becomes more important.

Even so, her consistency and proven Group 1 form make her a major player.

One Look Could Be Ready to Strike

Among the home team, One Look may represent the value angle.

The P. Twomey-trained mare has repeatedly shown her best form at around ten furlongs and possesses an excellent record at the Curragh. Her third in last year’s Prix de l’Opéra and runner-up effort in the Blandford Stakes both indicate she belongs at this level.

She shaped as though needing her seasonal return over a mile at the Curragh in May and is entitled to improve significantly for that outing. In a race where some rivals have slight question marks regarding trip or ground, One Look arrives with conditions likely to suit perfectly.

Red Letter Chasing Another Big Performance

Red Letter has developed into a reliable performer in Pattern company and again arrives in good form.

A Group winner at the Curragh last season, she ran with credit on her return before chasing home the smart See The Fire in a Group 2 at York. While she may lack the star quality of the principals, she is remarkably consistent and looks capable of making the frame if reproducing her recent efforts.

Others Have Something to Prove

The remainder of the field face a tougher assignment.

Beautify, a high-class juvenile, continues her experiment over longer distances after beginning her career as a sprinter. While her pedigree suggests she could stay, she has yet to show enough at a mile to make her an obvious contender over ten furlongs.

Nyra arrives with solid German form and a promising effort at Cork but must find improvement to trouble established Group 1 performers.

Qilin Queen and Wemightakedlongway both possess pieces of form that would make them competitive on their best days, yet neither has produced that level consistently enough this season.

Likely pace-setter Carolina Jetstream deserves credit for her recent efforts in stronger company but appears to face a significant class rise.

Tactical Considerations

One factor that could shape the outcome is the likely pace.

Carolina Jetstream appears the most natural front-runner in the field and may be allowed an uncontested lead. If the tempo is only moderate, tactical speed could become more important than outright stamina, potentially favouring horses such as One Look and Red Letter.

Any meaningful rainfall before the race would alter the balance slightly, bringing the stamina strengths of Thundering On and Estrange more firmly into play.

Verdict

The Pretty Polly Stakes often serves as a meeting point between generations, and this year’s renewal follows that tradition.

Thundering On arrives as the outstanding talent in the field and deserves favouritism after her Oaks triumph. Yet this is a different examination from Epsom, and the combination of quicker ground and a shorter trip means she cannot simply be awarded the race in advance.

Estrange brings proven top-level form and should make her presence felt, while One Look appeals as the mare most likely to outperform market expectations under ideal conditions.

Predicted Finish

1. Thundering On


2. Estrange


3. One Look


4. Red Letter



The most likely winner remains Thundering On, but the Pretty Polly promises to be a more searching test than the betting market might initially suggest.