14:00 Musselburgh: Perfidia Sets The Standard, But Mayor Of Maghera Looks The Value Angle

The 14:00 at Musselburgh is a seven-runner Class 6 handicap over 1m1f on good ground, with showers forecast. It is not a deep race, but it is an interesting betting puzzle because the obvious horse, Perfidia, arrives in strong form and is unpenalised for his latest win.

Perfidia has become very reliable this season. He won at Hamilton in May, ran respectably in defeat afterwards, and then made all at Nottingham last Thursday. That latest success came in an apprentice race, meaning he escapes a penalty here, and Jake Dickson keeps the ride. He also has tactical flexibility, having won from both the front and off the pace. That makes him the horse the others have to beat.

The concern is simply price. In a low-grade handicap, backing an exposed horse at short odds always carries risk, especially five days after a win. He is the most likely winner, but he may not be the best bet.

The alternative is Mayor Of Maghera, who has run well twice since joining R Mike Smith. His third over this course and distance was better than it looked, as he finished behind two solid yardsticks, and he then shaped respectably at Ayr. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up, and Daniel Tudhope is a positive booking. He looks the main value if available around 7/2 or bigger.

Keats House is also worth respecting. He won at Musselburgh last September and appears to be edging back towards form. His recent figures are not flashy, but his handicap mark is easing and he could outrun his odds if building on his Redcar fifth.

Approaching Dawn is another with a course angle. He is not straightforward, often missing the start, but his Musselburgh form on good ground is solid and this extra furlong gives him more time to get involved. He is more of a place or notebook horse than a win proposition.

The others have questions to answer. Bay Dream Believer has ability but may find this track and trip sharp enough, especially from a hold-up position. Second Fiddle has been out of form on turf and may be better judged back on the all-weather. Without Delay likes Musselburgh but looks more convincing over shorter.

The likely pace scenario favours Perfidia, who can control matters from stall 1, but Mayor Of Maghera should be close enough to challenge if the favourite is below his best.

Verdict: Perfidia is the most likely winner, but Mayor Of Maghera is the more interesting bet at the right price.
Suggested bet: Mayor Of Maghera small win at 7/2 or bigger.
Fair odds: Perfidia 9/4, Mayor Of Maghera 3/1, Keats House 6/1, Approaching Dawn 7/1.