Brighton 16:13 Preview: Bohemian Breeze Sets the Standard, But Pace Could Decide It

The 16:13 at Brighton is a Class 6 handicap over 1m2f on good-to-firm ground, and it looks a race where course craft and race position could matter as much as raw ability.

Bohemian Breeze arrives as the most convincing contender after winning over this course and distance three weeks ago. He travelled into that race well, hung left late, but still found enough to lead close home. A 5lb rise asks a question, yet he is back on a workable mark and Tom Queally clearly knows how to produce him. In a field full of exposed rivals, recent winning course form is a major asset.

The tactical danger is Man Is King. He has won three times since early May and is happiest when allowed to bowl along in front. His weakness is that he can empty late, and his recent Brighton fourth suggested this track and trip may just stretch him when pressure arrives. Even so, if Josephine Gordon gets him into an easy lead, he could make the others work hard to reel him in.

Little She is perhaps the most reliable runner in the field, but her 0-17 record remains a concern. She keeps hitting the frame, including a solid second at Chepstow last time, and should run well again. The issue is whether she has the finishing punch to actually win rather than place.

At bigger odds, Annexation makes some appeal. He is a veteran and has not won for a while, but he is now well handicapped and has been running respectably enough without quite threatening. If the leaders overdo things, he could be the one staying on into the frame.

The revival candidates are Voix De Bocelli and Twilight Guest, both of whom have Brighton C&D form. Twilight Guest is especially interesting from a handicapping angle, being much lower than during his winning spell last summer, but he needs to prove he still retains the spark. Cartwheel and San Francisco Bay both have something to prove after recent below-par efforts.

The race shape points towards Man Is King leading, with Bohemian Breeze ideally stalking or being produced late. If the pace is steady, the front-runner becomes dangerous. If it is even slightly contested, Bohemian Breeze looks the one best placed to take advantage.

Verdict: Bohemian Breeze is the most likely winner and deserves favouritism, though not at any price. Little She looks solid for the frame, while Annexation is the value alternative if the market gives him enough room.

Selection: Bohemian Breeze
Main danger: Man Is King
Each-way angle: Little She
Value outsider: Annexation