Pontefract 5:30 Preview: Can Far Ahead Finally Get His Head in Front?

The concluding race at Pontefract on Monday is a competitive 0-55 Class 6 handicap over 1m, and while the grade is modest, the contest contains several runners arriving with plausible claims and differing tactical profiles.

A key factor in assessing the race is the historical pace bias at Pontefract over this trip. Analysis of the last 400 races at the course and distance shows that front-runners have enjoyed a significant advantage, winning at just over 20% compared with less than 8% for hold-up performers. That statistic could prove decisive in a field containing several habitual pace-setters.

Far Ahead Heads the Market

The horse attracting most attention is Far Ahead, who arrives on the back of two runner-up finishes and appears to be finding his level after a disappointing winter campaign.

The Richard and Peter Fahey-trained gelding finished second behind Anificas Beauty at Beverley before following up with another runner-up effort at Hamilton. In both races he travelled strongly, perhaps too strongly at times, suggesting that settling remains the key to unlocking further improvement.

Although still a maiden in handicaps after 12 attempts, his recent Racing Post Ratings compare favourably with most of his rivals and the drop back to a mile could suit.

Hat-Trick Bid for Anificas Beauty

Few horses in the field arrive in better form than Anificas Beauty, who has transformed her fortunes after a long sequence of below-par efforts.

The seven-year-old mare has won her last two starts at Beverley and now seeks a hat-trick under a penalty. However, there are reasons for caution. She failed when attempting a hat-trick on previous occasions and was unable to land this race twelve months ago despite racing from a lower mark.

Even so, confidence will be high after successive victories and her prominent racing style should be well suited to Pontefract’s pace-favouring mile.

Pace Could Be Crucial

Several runners like to race prominently.

Nakatomi, Alice’s Influence, Daring Leader and Anificas Beauty have all shown a tendency to force the pace, creating the possibility of a strongly-run contest.

Of those, Nakatomi may be the most intriguing. Officially still a maiden, he produced arguably the best efforts of his career in May when finishing third at Beverley and then a close second at Hamilton. A disappointing run at Musselburgh followed, but if forgiven that effort he could be dangerous at much bigger odds than the principals.

The draw may also help Daring Leader, who breaks from stall one. His recent Beverley run was disappointing, but his Ripon third in May has worked out well with subsequent winners emerging from that race.

The Three-Year-Old Angle

Only one three-year-old takes part and that is Alice’s Influence.

Receiving a generous weight-for-age allowance, she brings a different profile to the race. Earlier in the spring she showed improved form when fitted with a visor, recording a dead-heat success at Wetherby and then finishing a close second at Bath.

Her form has dipped slightly since, but the removal of the visor could spark a revival. Given her tendency to race prominently and her low weight, she is one of the more interesting alternatives to the market leaders.

Closers Face Statistical Challenge

Both Hostelry and Elettaria are likely to be ridden patiently.

While each has shown signs of form recently, particularly Elettaria’s staying-on third at Beverley, Pontefract’s mile statistics suggest they may need the race to unfold perfectly. Hold-up horses have historically struggled over this course and distance, making their task more difficult despite potentially attractive odds.

Similarly, Shark Two One has a consistent profile and often finishes his races strongly, but his lack of recent winning form tempers enthusiasm.

Verdict

This looks a race where current form and tactical positioning could prove more important than raw ability.

Far Ahead has been knocking on the door and appears to hold the strongest overall profile. If able to settle and secure a handy position behind the leaders, he may finally gain a deserved success.

Anificas Beauty commands respect in pursuit of a hat-trick, while Alice’s Influence could represent value receiving weight from her older rivals.

At a bigger price, Nakatomi appeals as the potential surprise package. His front-running style is well suited to the track and his May form suggests a first career victory may not be far away.

Predicted 1-2-3

1. Far Ahead
2. Anificas Beauty
3. Alice’s Influence

Value Selection

Nakatomi – capable of outrunning market expectations if able to dictate or secure an easy lead.