7.45 Kempton: Tactical Speed May Trump Flashy Finishers

Kempton’s 7.45, the Try Unibet’s New Smartview Racecards Handicap, is a competitive 1m Class 4 handicap with 14 runners and plenty of form angles. On raw ability, several can be given a chance, but the key to the race may be track position.

Kempton’s mile often rewards horses ridden close to the pace. Historical track-and-distance data strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers, while hold-up horses have a much poorer strike-rate. That matters here because some of the more obvious form horses, including Saytarr and Arctic Thunder, tend to be delivered late.

I’m Workin On It looks the most solid tactical fit. He has four Kempton wins, is drawn ideally in stall 1, and usually races handily. His latest Newbury run is easy enough to forgive, and his previous Kempton efforts make him a major player, even though he may need a career best from his current mark.

The danger is that there could be enough early pace to make this more testing. Percy’s Lad, Showcasing Star and Director’s Cut all have forward-going profiles, which could set the race up for something finishing strongly. That keeps Saytarr in the picture. He is 3-3 on the all-weather for his current yard and remains highly progressive, but stall 14 is a significant concern around Kempton’s mile.

Revelance brings classy form and remains open to improvement as a four-year-old, but she returns from an absence and may be short enough in the market. Sovereign View is more interesting from a value perspective. He has improved with racing on the all-weather, receives weight as a three-year-old, and his latest turf run can be ignored.

The most intriguing outsider is Enemy Agent. He won over this course and distance on debut, has since struggled on turf, and now returns to the scene of that promising first run. With Silvestre De Sousa booked, he makes each-way appeal if the price holds.

Of the others, Chalk Mountain is respected as a Kempton performer but looks more convincing over 7f than 1m. Farasi Lane is reliable enough to run into a place but may not be ahead of his mark. Arctic Thunder has talent but often gets going too late, which is not ideal from stall 13.

Verdict

The race may come down to whether the prominent racers control things or whether the early pace collapses. The percentage call is I’m Workin On It, who has the draw, course record and tactical style to suit. The value alternative is Enemy Agent, back over the same C&D as his debut win.

Selection: I’m Workin On It
Value angle: Enemy Agent
Next best: Sovereign View
Respect: Saytarr