The 17:15 at Nottingham is a sharp 5f apprentice handicap where early speed should play a major role. Nottingham’s 5f data is strongly in favour of front-runners, with leaders winning 22.05% of recent races at the trip, compared with just 6.87% for held-up runners. That immediately puts the focus on the pace horses.

Beaumadier is the most obvious front-runner. His recent comments are packed with “led”, “made all” and “tracked leader”, and he made the running again when third at Thirsk last time. From stall 7, he should be sent forward.

Miss Brazen is another habitual pace angle. She has repeatedly led, disputed or contested the lead, including when winning over this course and distance in April. The concern is that several of her comments also include “headed” and “weakened”, so a contested lead could leave her vulnerable late.

That is where Winchurch becomes very interesting. He has tactical speed, has made all, has contested the lead, but also showed when winning at Catterick that he can be ridden with more patience and finish strongly. He looks the one most likely to sit just behind Beaumadier and Miss Brazen before getting first run when the leaders begin to tire.

The favourite’s recent Nottingham fourth can be forgiven because he was awkward and slowly away, yet he still was not beaten far. If he breaks cleanly this time, his draw in stall 3 should allow him to track the pace without getting involved in a duel.

Spirit Of Applause is respected as a closer from midfield, while Sam’s Hope has ability but may find the race shape against her. She tends to be held up and Nottingham 5f is rarely kind to horses needing everything to fall perfectly late.

The race should be run at an honest tempo, with Beaumadier and Miss Brazen forcing the pace. But the best tactical setup belongs to Winchurch, who can stalk, angle out, and strike late.

Selection: Winchurch
Main danger: Beaumadier
Pace outsider to outrun odds: Spirit Of Applause

Winchurch is the best bet for me because he gets the strongest tactical setup, not because he is simply the top-rated horse.