The 18:15 at Newbury is a competitive 1m2f Class 5 handicap, but the race shape may prove decisive. Historical Newbury 1m2f data gives an edge to horses racing forward, with front runners and prominent racers outperforming those ridden cold. That immediately brings Ablon, Fanciulla Del West and Kimeko Glory into the tactical picture.

Fanciulla Del West is respected. She is improving, ran well on handicap debut and has shown enough early pace to sit close to the leaders. She looks a solid contender, but she may be asked to chase rather than dictate.

Kimeko Glory is also interesting on pace, having led several times, including at Newbury last time. However, her recent finishing efforts have been less convincing, and she has faded after racing forward more than once.

The one who makes most tactical appeal is Ablon. She is drawn in stall 1, has already made all, and also showed the ability to track a leader before taking over. That gives Sean Levey options: lead if allowed, or sit right behind the pace if Kimeko Glory goes on. In a race where being forward should be an advantage, Ablon looks very well positioned.

Rossa Raheen and Madjid have ability, but both may need things to fall kindly from further back. Rossa Raheen in particular could be vulnerable if the race is only honestly run rather than strongly run.

Best Bet: Ablon

Ablon has the ideal combination of draw, tactical speed and unexposed profile. If she breaks cleanly, she can either control the race from the rail or get first run turning for home. At around 6/1, she looks the most appealing bet in the race.

Most favoured by pace: Ablon.
Main danger: Fanciulla Del West.