The 6:57 at Epsom looks a fascinating tactical contest over 1m4f, with a number of runners bringing very different pace profiles to the table. While the market is headed by the progressive three-year-old Alma Latina, this race may be decided as much by race shape as by raw ability.

The early pace appears likely to come from Analogical, Sir William and Timber Twelve. Analogical has made all twice recently and has repeatedly shown a preference for dictating matters. Sir William has several runs on his profile where he has either led or disputed the lead for much of the race, while Timber Twelve has produced his best efforts when allowed to stride on in front.

The presence of three natural front-runners raises the possibility of an honest or even strong gallop. That could make life difficult for horses that need an easy lead and may set the race up for those who prefer to be delivered later.

Alma Latina has been extremely progressive and arrives here after finishing third, second and first in her three starts this season. Importantly, she does not appear dependent on any one run style. Her recent comments suggest she can sit prominently, track leaders or race from midfield before producing her challenge. That tactical flexibility is a major asset around Epsom.

Central Command is another runner arriving in top form after winning three of his last four starts. His recent victories have generally come from off the pace, and he is likely to be one of the horses finishing strongly if the leaders begin to tire in the straight.

However, the runner who appeals most from a pace perspective is Arcturus Flame. His recent comments are full of phrases such as “stayed on”, “kept on strongly”, “nearest finish” and “closed well”. He rarely gets involved in the early battle but consistently finds plenty late on. In a race where several rivals may be competing for the same prominent positions, that profile could be ideal.

The Epsom 1m4f statistics show front-runners have historically enjoyed the best strike rate, but that advantage is often strongest when one horse secures an uncontested lead. Today’s race does not look likely to unfold that way. Instead, there is a strong chance that the pace will be shared between several runners, creating opportunities for those arriving late.

Selection

Best Bet: Arcturus Flame (6/1)

He looks the horse most likely to benefit from the expected race shape. His recent form is solid, he has repeatedly finished his races strongly, and the likely pace scenario should play directly into his strengths. Billy Loughnane is an eye-catching booking and, at the prices, Arcturus Flame offers a more attractive betting proposition than the short-priced favourite.

Predicted 1-2-3

1. Arcturus Flame
2. Alma Latina
3. Central Command

Verdict

Alma Latina is the most likely winner on pure progression and may simply prove too good. From a betting perspective, however, Arcturus Flame looks the value play. If the anticipated pace battle develops among the front-runners, he could be the one arriving strongest of all in the final furlong.