A competitive 14-runner 3yo handicap over 1m½f at Fairyhouse often turns into a tactical contest, and this year’s renewal looks likely to be shaped by a handful of runners who prefer to race prominently.

Recent evidence suggests Only One Scobie has been transformed by aggressive tactics. After spending much of the spring racing from the rear with little effect, he suddenly made all in emphatic fashion before almost repeating the feat when finishing third after setting strong fractions throughout. Connections are unlikely to abandon those tactics, and he looks the most likely early leader.

The problem for him is that he may not get things his own way. Fortuity has shown pace when winning from the front and when finishing second after tracking the leaders. Drawn in stall 2, Shane Foley should have little difficulty securing a prominent position. Dawn Flame is another who has regularly disputed the lead in previous starts and could add further pressure during the opening stages.

That creates an intriguing race shape.

Behind the pace sit runners such as Cisterna, who has consistently performed best when tracking the leaders before delivering a challenge in the straight. He rarely wastes energy fighting for the lead and could enjoy an ideal trip if the front-runners overdo things.

The horse whose profile stands out most, however, is Kc Bear.

Unlike many of his rivals, Kc Bear has repeatedly shown the same running style:

Held up towards the rear.

Produced late.

Strong finisher through the final furlong.

Proven ability to come from behind off an honest pace.


His win at Dundalk came after being detached early before finishing powerfully, and his subsequent placed efforts have followed a similar pattern. Even his latest fourth at Fairyhouse contained encouragement, making ground from the rear after encountering traffic.

Today’s setup looks much more favourable than many of the races he has contested. With Only One Scobie, Fortuity and Dawn Flame all likely to ensure a genuine gallop, Kc Bear should get the pace he needs to bring his finishing kick into play.

Main Dangers

Fortuity – Drawn low, tactically versatile and arrives in good form. Likely to get first run on the closers.

Cisterna – Consistent pace profile and should enjoy a perfect stalking trip just behind the speed.

Only One Scobie – Obvious danger if allowed to dictate, but this looks a more demanding tactical assignment than his recent races.


—

Best Bet

Kc Bear

Of all the runners, Kc Bear appears to have the strongest pace setup working in his favour.

He combines:

A proven late turn of foot.

A likely honest pace to chase.

A favourable draw.

Consistent recent evidence of finishing stronger than many of today’s rivals.


At around 9/2, he looks the runner most likely to be helped by how the race unfolds rather than hindered by it.

Predicted Finish

1. Kc Bear


2. Fortuity


3. Cisterna


4. Only One Scobie



Selection: Kc Bear (Win)
Saver/Each-Way Alternative: Cisterna
Horse most likely to trade shorter in-running: Only One Scobie.