A fascinating Class 3 sprint at Thirsk brings together a mix of established handicappers, in-form sprinters and several habitual front-runners, creating what looks likely to be one of the more tactically interesting races on Wednesday’s card.

The market is headed by Novello Lad, who arrives seeking a hat-trick after two impressive victories this season. His recent form is hard to fault and he has developed into a reliable late-finishing sprinter. The concern, however, is not his ability but the likely shape of the race. Novello Lad typically races in midfield or further back before producing his challenge late, and Thirsk’s 6f statistics strongly favour horses racing on or near the pace. If the leaders don’t overcook the early fractions, he may find himself with plenty to do.

The pace is expected to come from American Style and Bergerac. American Style has repeatedly shown a desire to attack from the gates and is the most likely leader during the opening furlong. Bergerac also has a history of forcing the pace and could ensure that the early gallop is honest. Strong Warrior has led before and is another capable of racing prominently, while Lord Roxby and Juan Les Pins are both naturally suited to tracking the speed from close range.

That tactical setup brings Juan Les Pins firmly into focus. The veteran may be nine years old, but his recent form remains remarkably consistent. His last ten runs show a horse regularly racing prominently or just behind the leaders before staying on strongly. Importantly, he does not require the lead, allowing him to sit in the perfect stalking position behind the expected pace battle.

His draw in stall 8 also looks advantageous given the current draw data, placing him in one of the more favourable sections of the track. While some rivals have either a poor draw or a running style that leaves them dependent on circumstances, Juan Les Pins appears to have the race unfolding exactly as he would want.

Lord Roxby is another with a strong tactical case. He regularly races just behind the pace and his recent victory in a large-field handicap suggests he remains competitive from his current mark. Strong Warrior is respected after showing signs of a return to form last time, while Indian Run could outrun his odds if building on an encouraging second at Doncaster.

The key question for punters is whether Novello Lad’s current form can overcome what appears to be a less-than-ideal pace scenario. He is clearly capable of doing so, but at a relatively short price there are stronger tactical arguments elsewhere.

Selection

Best Bet: Juan Les Pins

Everything about the likely race shape points towards him obtaining an ideal trip. He should be close enough to strike without becoming embroiled in the early pace battle, has a favourable draw, arrives in good form, and races in a style that historically performs well over this course and distance.

Main Dangers: Novello Lad, Lord Roxby and Strong Warrior.

Predicted 1-2-3

1. Juan Les Pins
2. Lord Roxby
3. Novello Lad

If the race unfolds as expected, Juan Les Pins looks the runner most likely to get first run on the pace horses and hold off the late challenge of Novello Lad.At current prices, Juan Les Pins would be my win bet. If looking for a bigger-priced alternative, Lord Roxby is the one I think could outperform market expectations from a favourable stalking position.