Friday’s 3.45 at Doncaster is a competitive 1m2f Class 4 handicap on good-to-firm ground, with eight runners set to line up after the withdrawal of Colourband. The race has a strong progressive feel, with recent improvers, lightly raced three-year-olds and a couple of well-handicapped older horses all bringing different claims.

The obvious starting point is Redbud Sixteen, who arrives in red-hot form after two easy front-running wins at Salisbury and Newbury. Her latest Newbury success was particularly taking, and she is due to race from a 4lb higher mark after this. That makes her well treated in the short term, while the return to fast ground and this 1m2f trip are both clear positives. Charlie Pike’s yard is also in excellent form, which adds further confidence. The only concern is price: at around 6/4, much of the upside is already factored in.

The biggest statistical challenger is Footwork. His HorseRaceBase profile is very strong, especially in the place market: 5 places from 7 in class, 5 from 8 under race code, 3 from 5 on the going and 5 from 9 in handicaps. He has also won 2 from 5 on similar ground and 3 from 9 in handicaps. Those numbers back up what the formbook suggests: he is reliable, progressive and well suited by the conditions. He may need to improve again, but he looks the most solid danger to the favourite.

The more interesting value angle could be Bintknight. She has had only two starts and improved from an Ascot debut fifth to win a Lingfield turf maiden over this trip. This is a tougher assignment on handicap debut, but she has the profile of a filly with more to come. The Charlton yard is operating well, and the trainer/jockey combination with Lewis Edmunds is a positive. At around 9/2, she makes more betting appeal than several more exposed rivals.

Be Patient is another unexposed three-year-old with obvious potential. He won a Newcastle novice on his second start and is bred to improve for this step up to 1m2f. His opening mark of 79 may underestimate him, and Oisin Orr is a positive booking. However, he returns from eight months off, makes his handicap and turf debut, and his supporting stats are less persuasive than Footwork’s or Bintknight’s. He is dangerous, but not bombproof.

At bigger odds, Prince Of The Seas is worth a second look. He has not fired consistently for David O’Meara, but he is now on a workable mark and the drop back to 1m2f could help after failing to settle over further. Daniel Tudhope taking the ride is also notable. He is not a win recommendation on recent evidence, but at 16/1 he has enough back-class to be considered as a small each-way play.

The others have more to prove. Serenity Blue has ability but needs first-time headgear to revive him after two disappointing efforts. Eupator has respectable place statistics but looks exposed and may need a career best. Military Air has fallen in the weights but has shown little since joining his current yard and is hard to recommend.

Overall, Redbud Sixteen is the most likely winner and deserves favouritism, but she is short enough in a race containing credible improvers. Footwork looks the safest alternative, while Bintknight appeals most as the value play. For those looking at bigger prices, Prince Of The Seas is the speculative each-way option.

Verdict: Redbud Sixteen is the one to beat, but Bintknight may offer the better bet at the prices.

Suggested strategy: Bintknight win, saver on Redbud Sixteen, and a small each-way interest in Prince Of The Seas if 16/1 is available.