The 17.15 at Sandown, the Debenhams Handicap over 1m on good ground, looks a competitive Class 4 contest with a mix of progressive three-year-olds, reliable handicappers and a few older runners looking to bounce back.

The early market gives plenty of respect to the unexposed pair, Ascending Star and Thursday Girl, but the strongest overall profile may belong to Silca Bay, who arrives in form and is backed up by several strong statistical angles.

Silca Bay comes here after opening his turf account at Goodwood, where he won over 1m on good to soft ground. He is only 2lb higher and retains Oliver Carmichael, whose 7lb claim continues to help. His Stat Attack profile is particularly persuasive: he has placed in 7 of 10 going this direction, 7 of 14 in handicaps, and 3 of 6 under this jockey. That gives him a solid blend of current form, course-style suitability and repeatable handicap reliability.

Ascending Star remains a major threat. Owen Burrows’ gelding is lightly raced, made all to win at Lingfield, and now makes his handicap debut from a mark of 80. He has scope to improve again, especially stepping up to 1m, but the market has not missed him. He is the most dangerous improver in the field, though perhaps not the best value if short enough.

Thursday Girl is another fascinating handicap debutante. Her novice form over 7f reads well, and the extra furlong could bring improvement. She receives weight and has the right profile for a race like this, but she still needs to prove stamina and toughness in a deeper handicap.

H Key Lails is also worth respecting. He won well at Lingfield last time and has strong place statistics over the distance and in handicaps. A 6lb rise makes life tougher, but he has enough consistency to be involved.

At bigger odds, Dovey Moon catches the eye as a value option. His record on good ground and over this sort of trip is strong, and he ran respectably only four days ago. He is on a career-high mark, but around 10/1 he makes each-way appeal.

The exposed runners such as Epictetus, Cristo and Triple Double A all have enough back-class or statistical support to run well, but each comes with reservations. Epictetus has ability but is hard to trust after a poor run at York, Cristo may be better on the all-weather, and Triple Double A needs to rebound from a disappointing spell.

Overall, Silca Bay looks the most solid option. Ascending Star may have the biggest ceiling, but Silca Bay brings proven handicap form, a recent win and a strong statistical case.

Selection: Silca Bay
Main danger: Ascending Star
Best each-way value: Dovey Moon
Dark horse: H Key Lails