The 17:43 at Chepstow is a compact but intriguing Class 4 handicap over 7f on good-to-firm ground. With only six runners and each-way terms limited to two places, this is not a race for speculative place betting. The focus should be on finding the right win angle.

Dr Strangelove looks the most solid contender. His recent second at Goodwood over this trip reads strongly, and his overall place profile is excellent. HorseRaceBase stats also support him, with a 4-from-5 place record in the class and a 6-from-9 career place record. With Mason Paetel claiming 5lb, he has a strong chance of confirming himself as the most reliable runner in the field.

Supreme King is the obvious danger and comes here in excellent recent form, having won at Salisbury before finishing a good second at Windsor. However, the market may have overreacted. His wider statistics raise questions, particularly his 0-from-16 win record at the distance and 0-from-8 win record on the going. He is respected, but at short odds he looks vulnerable.

The most interesting betting proposition is Morte Point. His recent form figures do not leap off the page, but he has been competing in stronger races and now drops in grade. His 7f record is encouraging, with three wins from eight at the distance, and first-time blinkers could help sharpen him up. At around 8/1, he offers a much better risk-reward profile than the front two in the betting.

Diamondonthehill also has a better chance than his latest run suggests. He disappointed at Salisbury last time, but his going and distance records are solid, including a 7-from-11 place record on the going and 16 places from 32 runs at the trip. He is exposed, but he could easily outrun his odds if bouncing back.

Aspull is the dark horse. He remains lightly raced and has previous good-to-firm 7f form, but his last two runs were disappointing and he needs to settle better. Society Man looks hardest to recommend, with recent form and fast-ground suitability both major concerns.

Verdict

Dr Strangelove is the most likely winner, but Morte Point makes the most appeal at the prices. Supreme King has the form to win, yet his short odds leave little margin for error.

Selection: Morte Point
Main danger: Dr Strangelove
Overbet runner: Supreme King
Possible outsider: Diamondonthehill