The 19:18 at Chepstow is a Class 6 three-year-old handicap over 1m on good-to-firm ground, and while Buckland Belle brings the strongest recent form into the race, this is not quite as straightforward as the market may suggest.

Ollie Sangster’s filly has improved since returning from a short break, winning at Windsor in May before running two solid races in defeat. Her latest second off a mark of 53 reads well in the context of this field, and her proven effectiveness over 1m on fast ground makes her the obvious one to beat. The slight concern is that much of her best work has come at Windsor, so she still has to prove she can reproduce that level away from that track.

The main alternative could be Alice’s Influence, who has a very solid statistical profile. She has already shown she handles this trip and grade, and the return of the visor looks a positive move. Her recent third at Pontefract was respectable, especially after a lesser effort on soft ground, and quicker conditions should suit her better. At around 7/2, she makes more appeal than the favourite from a value perspective.

Lady Of Clover is another with claims. She won at Wolverhampton before running respectably at Yarmouth, and the booking of Oisin Murphy catches the eye. Her place profile is strong, but she may need to improve again to win now back in handicap company.

The most interesting improver is Anorah Unleashed. She shaped better than the bare result at Carlisle last time, staying on after meeting some trouble and giving the impression that this step up to 1m could suit. At double-figure odds, she is dangerous if the extra distance unlocks improvement.

For each-way players, Violet Goldsmith should not be dismissed. Her runner-up effort over this course and distance on good-to-firm ground gives her a clear angle, and she could outrun her odds if repeating that run.

Overall, Buckland Belle is the most likely winner, but she looks short enough in the betting. Alice’s Influence appeals as the best value option, while Anorah Unleashed is the one with the most potential upside.

Selection: Alice’s Influence
Danger: Buckland Belle
Value outsider: Anorah Unleashed