The 20:17 at Bellewstown is a competitive 1m4f handicap for horses rated 0-60, with 16 runners declared and each-way terms available down to fifth place. On paper, it looks like a race where the market has found the right favourite, but the deeper stats suggest there may be better value further down the betting.

Sir Trancealot heads the power rankings and looks the most likely winner. J P Murtagh’s lightly raced three-year-old shaped very well on handicap debut at Fairyhouse, finishing third in a 17-runner field over this trip. That was a clear step forward, and with a useful 5lb claimer booked, he has the profile of a horse still ahead of his mark. The concern is stall 15, but his upside is strong enough to keep him at the top.

Rising Sky is another major player after a staying-on third at Naas. She drops in grade and has already shown enough ability to win a race of this nature. The wide draw is a negative, but her recent RPR puts her right in the mix.

For each-way players, Porsche Lad is the interesting one. His recent turf return can be forgiven on soft ground, and his historical place stats are eye-catching: he has placed in 3 of 5 runs at the distance and 8 of 15 going this direction. At a big price, he makes plenty of appeal if bouncing back on better ground.

Jazz Forever also enters calculations after a solid third at Navan, while Trishuli River is better than her turf record suggests and has strong place statistics in handicaps. Without Love is another outsider worth noting from a good draw, especially given his unexposed turf profile.

The most dangerous improver remains Amethyst Stone, who is lightly raced, drawn well and represents a strong yard. He needs to step forward from his handicap debut, but the potential is there.

Verdict

Most likely winner: Sir Trancealot
Best each-way value: Porsche Lad
Solid place contender: Jazz Forever
Dangerous improver: Amethyst Stone
Big-price saver: Without Love

Suggested strategy: Sir Trancealot win, with Porsche Lad each-way at 25/1 or bigger.