Sample Size: Approximately 1,000 runners per rank across each code

The latest TimeWise figures continue to show a remarkably consistent pattern across all three disciplines—National Hunt, All-Weather and Flat racing. The rankings are clearly separating horses by ability, with a very strong correlation between rating rank and actual race results.

National Hunt (TimeWise NH)

Rank Bets Wins Win % Place %

1 1011 280 27.70% 50.05%
2 1007 176 17.48% 40.62%
3 999 140 14.01% 36.04%


Key Findings

Top-rated horses are winning more than one race in every four (27.7%).

Half of all top-rated runners make the frame.

The drop from Rank 1 to Rank 2 is significant:

Win rate falls by over 10 percentage points.

Place rate falls by nearly 10 percentage points.



This suggests the NH ratings are doing an excellent job identifying the most likely winner.

NH Takeaway

The biggest edge appears to lie in focusing on Rank 1 runners, particularly when other factors such as pace, trainer form and suitability align.


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All-Weather (TimeWise AW)

Rank Bets Wins Win % Place %

1 1015 270 26.60% 54.88%
2 1020 202 19.80% 46.96%
3 996 141 14.16% 37.35%


Key Findings

Top-rated horses win 26.6% of races.

Nearly 55% of all top-rated runners place.

Rank 1 and Rank 2 account for almost half of all winners.


Interesting Point

The AW figures show the strongest place performance of the three codes, suggesting:

Ratings are highly reliable for identifying contenders.

Dutching Rank 1 and Rank 2 runners could be worth further investigation.

Top-rated runners may be particularly effective in forecast and place markets.


AW Takeaway

The AW ratings look exceptionally solid for finding horses likely to run their race.


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Flat Racing (TimeWise Flat)

Rank Bets Wins Win % Place %

1 1022 285 27.89% 53.91%
2 1016 170 16.73% 41.34%
3 992 143 14.42% 35.79%


Key Findings

Best-performing top rank of all three codes.

Rank 1 horses win almost 28% of races.

Over half of all top-rated runners place.


The Flat ratings show the largest gap between Rank 1 and Rank 2:

27.89% vs 16.73%

A difference of over 11 percentage points


That indicates the ratings are especially effective at identifying the strongest horse in Flat races.

Flat Takeaway

The strongest evidence yet that the TimeWise model is correctly separating the best horse from the rest of the field.


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Comparing the Three Codes

Code Rank 1 Win % Rank 1 Place %

Flat 27.89% 53.91%
NH 27.70% 50.05%
AW 26.60% 54.88%


Best Win Strike Rate

🥇 Flat – 27.89%

Best Place Strike Rate

🥇 All-Weather – 54.88%

Most Consistent Overall

🥇 Flat & NH are virtually identical for winner identification.


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What This Means for Your Betting

For your style of betting and the way you’ve built ProHandicap Max, these figures reinforce a key principle:

Rank 1 should remain your starting point

The top-rated horse wins:

27.9% on the Flat

27.7% over Jumps

26.6% on the AW


Those are extremely strong numbers for a ratings system and demonstrate genuine predictive power. Good ratings systems should show a clear decline in strike rate as rank falls, and TimeWise does exactly that.

Potential Development

A worthwhile next test would be to examine:

Rank 1 favourites

Rank 1 non-favourites

Rank 1 + Top 3 in market

Rank 1 with positive trainer form

Rank 1 with pace advantage

Rank 1 dropping in class


Those filters are often where a 27% strike-rate system becomes a profitable betting strategy.

Overall Verdict

The latest TimeWise update is very encouraging.

Around 1,000 runners tested per rank provides meaningful evidence.

All three codes show almost identical behaviour.

Top-rated runners win roughly one race in four.

More than half of top-rated runners place.

The ranking hierarchy remains extremely orderly, which is exactly what you want from a robust ratings engine.


Scorecard

Flat: ★★★★★

NH: ★★★★★

AW: ★★★★½


The standout statistic is that the Flat Rank 1 horses are winning at 27.89%, while AW Rank 1 horses are placing at 54.88%. Those are the headline numbers that suggest TimeWise remains one of the strongest foundations for race analysis before applying your pace, trainer, market and value overlays.