The FIFA World Cup 2026 has entered its most exciting phase, with the knockout rounds delivering drama, surprises and heartbreak in equal measure. After a group stage that seemed to last forever, the race to lift football’s greatest prize is now taking shape.

Several heavyweight nations have already fallen by the wayside. Germany and the Netherlands were among the biggest casualties, while Morocco continued their rise as a major force on the world stage. Meanwhile, traditional powers France, Argentina, Spain, Portugal and Brazil remain firmly in the hunt for glory.

According to the latest Opta Supercomputer projections, France have emerged as the team to beat. Using 25,000 tournament simulations, Opta’s model assesses each nation’s chances of progressing through the knockout rounds and ultimately becoming world champions. The numbers currently place Les Bleus at the head of the queue, reflecting the strength and depth of their squad.

Defending champions Argentina continue their title defence and now face one of the tournament’s great stories. Cape Verde have captured the imagination of football fans worldwide with their remarkable journey into the knockout stage. The island nation were considered outsiders before the tournament began, yet they have defied expectations to earn a showdown with Lionel Messi and company.

While Argentina will start as overwhelming favourites, knockout football has a habit of producing unforgettable moments. Cape Verde have already shown they belong on this stage and will relish the opportunity to test themselves against the reigning world champions.

Elsewhere, the host nations continue to make history. Canada recorded their first-ever World Cup knockout victory, while Mexico secured their first post-group-stage win since hosting the tournament in 1986. The United States also advanced with an impressive display, ensuring all three hosts remain part of the World Cup story.

England and Belgium survived stern tests to reach the next round, while Spain and Portugal demonstrated why they remain among Europe’s elite. Brazil, seeking a record-extending sixth World Cup title, continue to move quietly through the tournament and could yet prove the biggest threat to France’s ambitions.

One of the fascinating aspects of the knockout stage is not simply who a team faces next, but the potential route that lies ahead. Every result reshapes the bracket and can dramatically alter a nation’s path to the final. A favourable draw can be just as important as form, while a difficult quarter-final or semi-final assignment can quickly end even the strongest team’s dreams.

As the tournament enters its decisive weeks, the margins become finer and the pressure intensifies. Every match is now a final. One mistake can end years of preparation, while one moment of brilliance can create footballing immortality.

The Opta Supercomputer may favour France, but history has repeatedly shown that World Cups are rarely won on paper. Argentina are chasing back-to-back titles, Brazil are hunting a sixth crown, England dream of ending decades of hurt, and surprise packages like Cape Verde continue to prove that anything is possible.

The road to World Cup glory is narrowing. The drama is building. And the biggest prize in football is now within touching distance for those teams brave enough to seize the moment.