The Betway Lancashire Oaks at Newmarket looks a fascinating Group 2 for fillies and mares, with Tiffany the clear form horse but several progressive rivals lining up with enough upside to make this more than a one-runner race.

Sir Mark Prescott’s mare brings the strongest established form into the contest. A German Group 2 winner and multiple Group 1 runner-up, Tiffany returned from a break with a solid second at Chantilly over 1m4f on good to firm ground. That should have sharpened her up, and with the trip, ground and race conditions all in her favour, she is very much the one they all have to beat.

The pace map also works in her favour. There is no obvious front-runner in the field, and HorseRaceBase’s Comment Shaper suggests only moderate early pressure. Tiffany is expected to race prominently, which could allow Luke Morris to hold a tactical position before asking her to use her proven finishing strength.

However, at odds-on, she is short enough. The more interesting betting case may be Tattycoram, who looks well suited by both the race shape and the conditions. Ralph Beckett’s filly returned this season with a Listed win at Goodwood over 1m4f, and the form has substance. She is likely to sit handy in a race without much pace, and that could prove a major advantage over deeper closers.

Caught U Sleeping is the most intriguing improver. The three-year-old receives a valuable weight allowance and has improved since stepping up in trip, winning at Listed level before going close in a Group 3 at Naas. The big question is stamina over 1m4f. If she stays, she could easily outrun her current rating.

There is also a lively each-way outsider in Lady Dora Mae. She has more to find on form, but her profile is progressive, and the statistical case is strong. HorseRaceBase flags excellent place data for her: 7 places from 8 with her trainer, 4 from 5 with her jockey, and 7 from 9 across her career. At big odds, she looks better than a no-hoper.

Crepe Suzette, Miss Justice and Lava Stream all have form that gives them claims, but each arrives with a question. Crepe Suzette needs to bounce back, Miss Justice has to reverse recent Chantilly form with Tiffany, and Lava Stream may need a stronger gallop than she is likely to get.

Overall, Tiffany is the rightful favourite and the most likely winner, but the race may not offer much value at her current price. Tattycoram appeals as the best win-value alternative, while Lady Dora Mae is the one who could outrun big odds for each-way players.

Selection: Tattycoram each-way
Main danger: Tiffany
Best outsider: Lady Dora Mae
Most interesting improver: Caught U Sleeping