The 3.35 at Sandown, the Coral-Eclipse, has all the ingredients of a fascinating Group 1 tactical battle. Constitution River arrives as the clear form horse and deserved favourite, but the shape of the race suggests this may not be quite as straightforward as the market implies.

Aidan O’Brien’s three-year-old heads the field after an impressive Prix du Jockey Club success at Chantilly. He is top on Racing Post Ratings, still improving, and receives the valuable weight-for-age allowance from the older horses. With Ryan Moore booked and Ballydoyle’s excellent record in this race, he is clearly the most likely winner.

However, the pace map adds intrigue. Constitution River and Hawk Mountain are both likely to race forward, creating the possibility of a strongly run Eclipse. That scenario may suit Gethin, who is expected to sit just behind the pace and has a rock-solid profile. Owen Burrows’ colt has never finished out of the first two and brings a 100% career place record. His recent Sandown second behind Ombudsman reads extremely well, and at around 4/1 he looks the best value alternative to the favourite.

Saddadd is another major danger. Roger Varian’s colt is 2-2 over this course and distance and has outstanding distance statistics, including a perfect place record over 1m2f. He is usually ridden patiently, and if the early leaders go too hard, he could be the one finishing strongest late. At around 7/1, he makes plenty of appeal as a value play.

Hawk Mountain has obvious claims on his French Derby second to Constitution River, but he may be vulnerable if forced into a pace battle. A Boy Named Susie is also interesting at bigger odds, having shaped better than the bare result when fourth in the French Derby after meeting trouble in running.

Constitution River remains the horse to beat, but his short price leaves little margin for error. From a betting angle, Gethin looks the most solid win bet, while Saddadd is the most dangerous closer if the race develops into a stamina test.

The verdict is that Constitution River is the likeliest winner, but Gethin is the best value bet, with Saddadd also worth serious consideration.