The 16:02 at Beverley, the Charlie Wood Stakes, brings together a small but intriguing Listed field over 1m4f on good-to-firm ground. With Phantom Flight declared a non-runner, the race now revolves around whether proven Group-class performer Al Aasy can justify short-priced favouritism, or whether the lightly raced By The Book can expose any tactical weakness.

On raw ability, Al Aasy is clearly the horse to beat. William Haggas’s veteran has long operated at a higher level than most of these and returned this season with an excellent second in the John Porter Stakes at Newbury. His career record at this sort of distance is strong, and HorseRaceBase statistics underline his reliability: he has placed in 18 of his 29 career starts and has a 58% place strike-rate over the distance. Dropping into Listed company, he has obvious claims.

However, this may not be quite as straightforward as the market suggests. The pace map points to Percy’s Daydream as the likely lone front-runner, with Involvement sitting prominently and both Al Aasy and By The Book expected to be ridden more patiently. In a small-field Beverley race, that can create a tactical contest rather than a true stamina test, and hold-up horses may need luck if the pace is steady.

That brings By The Book firmly into the picture. Charlie Appleby’s gelding remains relatively unexposed and has already shown useful form in Dubai, including a 1m4f handicap win at Meydan and a solid Group 3 third. His latest Group 1 run can be forgiven in a deeper race, and this represents a more suitable assignment. Appleby’s current and long-term trainer figures are strong, and at around 3/1 he makes more appeal from a value perspective than the odds-on favourite.

Involvement is another runner who could outrun his price. His recent form is mixed, including a poor run at Goodwood last time, but his earlier Listed fourth at the same track gives him place claims. The key positive is race position: as the likely prominent runner behind the leader, he may get first run on the closers.

Of the bigger-priced runners, Percy’s Daydream has the pace angle but must prove she belongs at Listed level, while Miss Wong has plenty to find on recent evidence.

Overall, Al Aasy remains the most likely winner, but his short price leaves little margin for tactical risk. By The Book is the more interesting bet, especially if available around 3/1, while Involvement appeals as the outsider most likely to hit the frame.

Verdict:

1. Al Aasy
2. By The Book
3. Involvement

Best bet: By The Book
Most likely winner: Al Aasy
Value angle: Involvement for place/forecast markets