The 16:25 at Newmarket is a competitive 7f Class 2 handicap on good-to-firm ground, and while the market has found obvious contenders in Silver Ghost and Royal Zabeel, the deeper evidence suggests this may be a race where shape and value matter more than simply siding with the shortest price.

Silver Ghost brings the most solid recent Newmarket form. She was narrowly denied over 7f in May and has run well at the track before, making her a very reliable contender. The concern is price. At around 11/4, she looks respected rather than missed by the market.

Royal Zabeel is arguably the strongest horse on raw ability. His Wokingham run at Royal Ascot can be forgiven, as he raced on the unfavoured side, and his earlier Victoria Cup fifth reads well in this context. As a previous course-and-distance winner, he has clear claims if returning to his best.

However, the race-shape data points towards a strong tempo. There is no obvious front-runner, but several horses like to race prominently, which could create enough pressure to favour strong finishers. That brings Divine Libra, Akkadian Thunder and Golden Redemption firmly into the conversation.

Divine Libra is especially interesting at double-figure odds. His Chester run was better than the finishing position suggests, as he met trouble in the straight, and he remains well handicapped on last season’s best form. With the race likely to suit a closer, he looks a strong each-way value play.

Akkadian Thunder is another who should benefit if the race is strongly run. He has been expensive to follow, but recent runs suggest he is still capable of landing one of these when getting the right setup.

Golden Redemption is the statistical each-way angle. His place record is excellent, including strong figures across career, handicap, turf and distance categories. He is slightly wrong at the weights, but his consistency makes him hard to dismiss at around 8/1.

Houquetot has talent and remains unexposed in this type of race, but the concern is whether his prominent racing style and tendency to weaken will be suited by a strongly-run 7f handicap.

Overall, Royal Zabeel may be the most likely winner on class, but the best betting value lies elsewhere.

Verdict:
Best value: Divine Libra each-way
Best each-way alternative: Golden Redemption
Most likely winner: Royal Zabeel
Short-price caution: Silver Ghost??