The 16:30 at Leicester, the KLG Rutland Handicap over 7f, looks a tactically interesting Class 4 contest for three-year-olds. With only seven runners and no obvious confirmed front-runner, race position could prove just as important as raw ability.

Mr Writer sets a solid standard. James Fanshawe’s gelding has been running consistently in competitive races and his recent fifth at Goodwood over 1m looks better than the bare result. The return to 7f should suit, and from stall 1 Daniel Muscutt has the option to hold a handy position on the rail. He looks the most reliable runner in the field and deserves his place near the head of the market.

Frantic has the highest recent RPR and remains a major danger, but she is not without risks. She has been beaten at short prices more than once and is likely to be ridden patiently. In a race without strong early pace, that could leave her needing luck in running. She has the talent to win, but at short odds she makes limited appeal from a betting perspective.

Eduardo Calderon is one of the more interesting runners. His previous second over course and distance reads well, and today’s expected race shape should suit a prominent racer drawn low. He remains lightly raced and open to more improvement than several rivals. At around 5/1, he still looks a live value contender.

The statistical standout is Galileo Island. His recent Doncaster run was disappointing, but his wider profile is stronger than that effort suggests. He has an excellent place record at the distance, solid career-place figures and enough tactical speed to get involved early. At double-figure odds, he looks overpriced if returning to anything close to his juvenile or all-weather handicap form.

Cashbox is another who cannot be dismissed completely. His recent form is patchy, but he drops in class and has shown enough ability in the past to outrun his odds if first-time cheekpieces spark a revival. Loquella is lightly raced but needs to prove herself on turf, while Pints In Peace has finishing ability but may need a stronger pace collapse than this race is likely to provide.

Overall, Mr Writer is the most likely winner, but the betting value may lie elsewhere. Eduardo Calderon has the right course, draw and pace profile, while Galileo Island appeals as the most interesting each-way option at the prices.

Verdict:

1. Mr Writer
2. Eduardo Calderon
3. Galileo Island
4. Frantic

Best value: Galileo Island each-way
Win alternative: Eduardo Calderon
Most likely winner: Mr Writer
Favourite to oppose: Frantic??