The 16:47 at Sandown, the Coral Free Rewards Shaker Handicap, looks a fascinating Class 4 contest over 1m2f on good-to-firm ground. With eight three-year-olds lining up, this is not simply a race about who owns the best bare rating. Several runners are still unexposed, a few arrive with strong recent form, and the likely pace setup could have a major bearing on the result.

The early market is headed by a tightly grouped cluster including Akho Mezzna, Tambora, Barbury Boy, Bridge Of Eagles, St Hilda and Sassicaia, while Loblolly looks the tactical wildcard at bigger odds.

Pace Shape

The key angle is that Loblolly appears the likely sole front-runner. If Ryan Moore is able to control the tempo, he could be dangerous stepping up to 1m2f. He has already run well at Sandown over shorter and may be worth this new trip.

Tambora and St Hilda should be close enough to the pace to get first run, which is a positive in a race where the collapse risk looks low. That may make life slightly harder for the deeper closers such as Barbury Boy, Bridge Of Eagles and Akho Mezzna, who all have finishing strength but may need the leaders to come back to them.

Main Contenders

Barbury Boy brings one of the strongest profiles. He has won two of his last three handicaps, is proven over 1m2f, handles good-to-firm ground and still looks capable of better. The concern is tactical: if he is ridden patiently, he may need luck and a strong enough gallop.

Tambora is arguably the most balanced runner in the field. He shaped well on handicap debut over this course and distance, finishing close behind Akho Mezzna and Bridge Of Eagles, and remains open to improvement after only four starts. His prominent style could be a major asset.

Akho Mezzna has the strongest place-stat profile and ran a career-best when second over course and distance last time. Oisin Murphy is a positive booking and the cheekpieces appear to have sharpened him up. He is solid, but his hold-up style means he may need the race to unfold kindly.

Bridge Of Eagles is another strong late finisher and has already shown he handles this course and distance. His yard is in excellent form, but he may be vulnerable if the race turns tactical rather than strongly run.

Sassicaia is the stats-driven danger. His Ascot run was slightly underwhelming, but he has been gelded since and Owen Burrows has a strong Sandown record. He needs to resume his progression, but he is not easily dismissed.

St Hilda is unexposed and moves into handicaps after two good efforts at 1m2f. She should race prominently and could be better than her opening mark, although the market has not missed her.

Valpovo is hard to recommend after a poor UK handicap debut at Chester and needs a major revival.

Verdict

This looks more open than the betting suggests. Barbury Boy may be the best horse in the race long term, but the tactical setup makes Tambora very appealing. He has course-and-distance form, should sit close to the pace, has improvement to come and gets enough statistical support to make him the most attractive overall play.

Loblolly is dangerous if allowed an easy lead, while Akho Mezzna looks a strong place contender. Sassicaia is the outsider of the main group who could outrun expectations if the gelding operation brings improvement.

Selection

1. Tambora
2. Barbury Boy
3. Akho Mezzna
4. Loblolly

Best bet: Tambora
Best value alternative: Sassicaia
Tactical danger: Loblolly
Place/forecast horse: Akho Mezzna