The 16:53 at Naas, the Care At Home Handicap over 1m3f on good ground, looks a fascinating low-grade three-year-old handicap where improvement potential could matter more than bare form.

Rodeo Blues is the obvious starting point. She got off the mark in good style at Ballinrobe, hitting the line strongly over 9.5f, and the extra distance looks a positive. A 12lb rise makes life tougher, but she is progressive, represents Joseph O’Brien, and remains the most likely winner if continuing her upward curve.

The main danger on ratings could be Connecteo, whose Roscommon second over 1m4f reads well. He was less convincing last time on softer ground, but a return to a sounder surface gives him a chance to bounce back. The concern is race position, as he has shown signs of being slowly away, which could leave him needing luck.

Point Cartwright is another solid contender. He stayed on well when second at Limerick over 1m4f and looks capable off his mark, although this slight drop in trip may not be ideal. At a short enough price, he looks more of a fair contender than a standout bet.

From a value perspective, Nephin Mountain makes strong appeal. He shaped well at Leopardstown over 1m1f, finishing fourth, and looked as though this longer trip would suit. He has a solid mid-division racing style, stays on well, handles good ground, and could get the right race setup if the pace becomes testing.

The interesting each-way angle is Swift Charm, assuming she gets into the race. Her recent placed efforts at Ballinrobe and Fairyhouse suggest she is capable at this level, and she is another who should be suited by good ground. HorseRaceBase pace data also flags her as a strong finisher, which is encouraging in a race with a potentially strong shape.

Among the outsiders, Wingit is not without interest at a bigger price. Her form is patchy and she returns from a break, but she has been identified as a strong late finisher and gets Shane Foley booked. She would need to improve significantly, but she is not impossible for a place.

The pace map suggests there is no obvious front-runner, with several likely to race midfield or be held up. That could make positioning important, but if the race develops into a proper stamina test, the closers should come into it late. This scenario suits Nephin Mountain, Swift Charm and Rodeo Blues more than those with weak-finishing profiles.

The favourite, Rodeo Blues, deserves respect and is clearly the one they all have to beat. However, at the prices, the better betting angle may be to oppose her as a short-priced handicapper after a sharp rise in the weights.

Verdict: Rodeo Blues is the most likely winner, but Nephin Mountain looks the best value play. If Swift Charm gets a run, she is a lively each-way contender.