The 17:22 at Sandown, the Coral Celebrating 100 Years Handicap over 1m2f, looks a strong Class 2 contest with a useful mix of progressive four-year-olds, solid older handicappers and a few runners trying to revive higher-class form.

At the head of the market, Point Of Contact is the obvious starting point. He arrives off a career-best win at York, handles quick ground, and the booking of Ryan Moore is an obvious positive. His latest Racing Post Rating puts him right at the top of this field, and the way he finished at York suggests this slightly longer trip should be within range. He is the most likely winner, but at around 2/1, he is priced close to his true chance.

Spoken Truth is another major player. He has been very consistent for David O’Meara, placing repeatedly in good handicaps, and his 1m2f form is solid. The concern is tactical: HorseRaceBase’s pace analysis marks him as a hold-up performer, and this race does not look guaranteed to collapse late. He should run well, but he may need things to fall perfectly.

The horse who becomes most interesting once race shape is included is Rathgar. He is identified as the likely sole front-runner, and although his York run last time was slightly disappointing, his earlier wins at Newbury and Epsom showed he can be dangerous when allowed to dictate. The statistical profile also supports him: he has strong place records at the trip, on turf, on similar going and within this type of race code. At around 9/1, he looks the best each-way value in the race.

Flying Frontier also deserves respect. He won this race last year off a similar mark and has excellent going and direction stats. His fourth in the Zetland Gold Cup suggested he was coming back to form, and if the leaders overdo it even slightly, he is one of the more likely closers to take advantage.

Stem is the tempting improver. His return to 1m2f should suit, and his best form as a three-year-old makes him competitive. However, his hold-up style is a slight concern in a race where the pace may be only moderate. He remains interesting, but the value case is not quite as strong as it first appeared.

Of the outsiders, Cloth Of Gold has each-way possibilities if transferring his all-weather form back to turf, while Theory Of Tides has ability but returns from a long absence for a new yard. Great David is well treated on old form but has shown little this season, and both King’s Code and Brasil Power have enough to prove.

Verdict

Point Of Contact is the most likely winner and sets the standard on current form, but the betting angle is Rathgar each-way. He could get the run of the race in front, and at the prices he makes more appeal than several shorter hold-up horses.

Predicted finish:

1. Point Of Contact
2. Rathgar
3. Flying Frontier
4. Spoken Truth
5. Stem

Best bet: Rathgar each-way
Most likely winner: Point Of Contact
Danger: Flying Frontier