The 17:35 at Leicester is a small-field Class 6 handicap over 6f on good-to-firm ground, but it is a more interesting race than the numbers suggest. Melissa Honey heads the market after a consistent run of form, Moonhall Lass arrives thriving after a recent course win, and Elvetham looks the one whose price may underestimate his chance.

The pace setup is important. There is no obvious confirmed front-runner, but several runners like to race prominently. That creates the possibility of a contested tactical race, where those sitting just behind the pace — or finishing strongly late — could be favoured. On that basis, Moonhall Lass and Elvetham come out particularly well.

Moonhall Lass has been transformed since joining James Owen and won comfortably over 7f at this track nine days ago. The drop back to 6f is a small question, especially as she can be slowly away, but she is a strong finisher and should be suited if the race becomes strongly run. A 4lb rise does not look harsh and she remains the most likely winner.

Melissa Honey is the solid one. She followed a breakthrough Doncaster win over 6f on good-to-firm ground with a good second at Pontefract, and she is clearly in good heart. The concern is price rather than form. At around 6/4, she looks short enough in a race where the pace shape may not be entirely in her favour.

The value angle is Elvetham. His latest Newmarket run was poor, but that came in a Class 5 and his previous form reads much better: a win, three placed efforts and another good second across his earlier spring and summer runs. HorseRaceBase stats also support him, with strong place records in class, distance and trainer-related categories. If he bounces back to his previous level, he is a serious player at a bigger price.

Bridget’s Baby is the most interesting improver. She is a lightly raced three-year-old who won at Lingfield last time and still has potential, but the form of that race is questionable and a 5lb rise asks more of her. She is dangerous, but not as compelling as the top three.

Due Date has enough old form to make him dangerous from a reduced mark, but his recent efforts suggest he is not currently at his best. Great Success is edging back towards competitiveness but still needs more, while Rianka remains hard to fancy unless finding major improvement.

The most likely winner is Moonhall Lass, who has the current form, course evidence and finishing style to suit the race. However, from a betting perspective, Elvetham makes the most appeal. His poor latest run is easy to forgive, his earlier 6f form is strong for this level, and the race shape could bring him right into play.

Selection: Elvetham
Main danger: Moonhall Lass
Favourite to oppose: Melissa Honey
Best improver: Bridget’s Baby

Betting strategy: small win or each-way on Elvetham, with Moonhall Lass respected as the main threat.