The 18:18 Bellewstown Street Sweep Handicap Hurdle looks a fascinating 2m1f contest, with a strong field of experienced handicappers, progressive types and a few risky but interesting outsiders. On bare form, Fiver Friday sets a high standard, but the likely race shape suggests this may not be a straightforward case of backing the obvious contender.

Fiver Friday has the strongest overall profile. Gavin Cromwell’s mare has already won over course and distance and her April form reads well, including a convincing Bellewstown success and a Flat win at the Curragh. Her latest effort at Down Royal can be forgiven, as she reportedly had an excuse, and her overall statistics are excellent. She is the most solid runner in the race and clearly deserves her place near the head of the market.

However, the pace map adds another layer. HorseRaceBase identifies a very strong race shape with two likely front-runners, three prominent racers and a high collapse risk. That means the race could be run at a searching gallop, potentially bringing strong finishers and hold-up horses into play.

That scenario makes Putapoundinthejar particularly interesting. He was third behind Spy and Becasse at Listowel last time, but his held-up style and strong late-finishing profile could be better suited to this contest than that pair. He is consistent, handles the trip, and with Daniel King riding for A J Martin, he looks one of the more attractive win alternatives to the favourite.

Come On The Lads is another who comes into the picture once pace and statistics are considered. He has a strong distance-place record, operates well under these conditions and is another Cromwell runner who may be ridden patiently. While Fiver Friday appears the stable’s main hope on form, Come On The Lads could be the better each-way value if the leaders go too hard.

Ifiwerearichman also appeals as a place contender. He brings useful chasing form, returned with a bright effort over hurdles at Wexford and is usually ridden with patience. In a strongly run handicap, that profile makes plenty of sense.

Becasse remains a major player on ability. His Listowel second was a good run, and he is still lightly raced enough to improve. The concern is tactical: if he is one of those forcing the pace, he could be vulnerable late. Spy, who beat him at Listowel, is respected again, especially with a claim, but he may now be priced close enough to his chance.

Malbay Madness is progressive after back-to-back wins, while Paul’s Dream is another late-running type who could outrun expectations if getting into the race. Barbizon is the wildcard: a talented 4yo with a strong Flat background, but his recent hurdle form leaves plenty to prove.

Overall, Fiver Friday is the most likely winner, but the race may be set up for something finishing from off the pace. Putapoundinthejar looks the strongest win alternative, while Come On The Lads and Ifiwerearichman make appeal as each-way plays.

Verdict

Most likely winner: Fiver Friday
Best value: Come On The Lads
Best win alternative: Putapoundinthejar
Each-way player: Ifiwerearichman
Vulnerable contender: Becasse

A sensible betting approach would be to keep Fiver Friday on side, but look for value among the closers, especially Putapoundinthejar and Come On The Lads.