The 19:48 at Bellewstown, the QuinnBet Bellewstown Handicap Hurdle, is a competitive 3m½f contest on good ground with 16 runners declared. With each-way terms available down to five places, this looks a race where finding the right value angle may be more important than simply siding with the market leader.

Jisco Du Brem sets a strong form standard after winning well at Ballinrobe over 2m6f. The step up to this staying trip should suit, and his latest effort looks solid, especially with the form having received a boost. He is a major player and rates the most likely winner on overall profile.

However, the more interesting betting angle may be Tolka Row. He remains unexposed over hurdles, shaped well when second at Tramore, and now moves into handicap company from what looks a workable opening mark. His point-to-point background suggests this longer trip should suit, and race-shape data marks him down as a consistent mid-division runner with a strong finishing effort. In a race lacking a clear front-runner, that finishing strength could prove important.

Burning Ability is another with clear upside. He won a maiden hurdle last time and now makes his handicap debut from a fair-looking mark. The main question is whether he fully sees out this longer trip, but he has a reliable racing style and strong place-profile statistics, making him a serious each-way contender.

The Miracle Man is also respected on his first start for Gordon Elliott. His recent profile is mixed, but he has strong late-finishing traits and Jack Kennedy is an obvious positive booking. If the change of yard sparks improvement, he could easily outrun his odds.

Among the older handicappers, Outside The Door and Dorans Law both have place claims, while Radar Ahead has some statistical support but still has to prove stamina at this distance. Le Kap has ability and represents a powerful yard, but his jumping issues make him short enough in the market.

The longshot worth noting is Mephisto, who has been active on the Flat and is identified as a strong late finisher. At a big price, he could run better than the market expects, though winning may require a significant revival over hurdles.

Verdict

Jisco Du Brem is the most likely winner, but Tolka Row makes strongest appeal as the value each-way play. He is unexposed, likely to stay well, and his running style should suit how this race may unfold.

Selection: Tolka Row each-way
Main danger: Jisco Du Brem
Best improver: Burning Ability
Each-way outsider: Mephisto
Overbet runner: Le Kap