The 20:30 at Nottingham, the Last Orders Dash Handicap, is a Class 6 contest for three-year-olds over 1m2f on good-to-firm ground. With just seven runners declared, this looks a tactical race rather than a strongly-run stamina test — and that could prove crucial.

The clear form standard is Regulus Black, who arrives with the strongest Racing Post Rating and proven winning form over this trip and ground. His Chepstow victory over 1m2f on good-to-firm reads well in the context of this race, and his latest third at Hamilton can be marked up slightly as he appeared not to fully see out 1m3f. Back down in trip, he looks ideally placed.

The race-shape data also plays in his favour. There is no obvious front-runner, and Regulus Black is the one most likely to race prominently. In a weakly-run small-field handicap, tactical position can be decisive, and Ross Coakley should be able to sit close to the pace without using too much energy.

The main danger may be Sound Gloria, who makes her handicap debut for Roger Varian. Her qualifying runs were not especially exciting, but she is lightly raced, bred to improve for this step up in trip, and comes from a stable with a strong Nottingham record. Statistically, she has the most appealing profile in the race and looks the most likely improver.

Palace Artois is another interesting handicap type from a powerful yard. William Haggas has strong trainer figures, and this filly is bred to be better than she has shown so far. However, she has yet to place in five starts and needs to take a meaningful step forward.

Baldosa brings solid recent form and has been shaping as though 1m2f suits her. She is a strong finisher, but the concern is the likely lack of pace. If the race becomes tactical, she may find herself needing to quicken from behind, which could blunt her effectiveness.

Of the outsiders, Alcanzor is the most intriguing. He has shown little so far, but now goes handicapping off a low mark and steps up in trip. He is speculative, but not impossible at a bigger price.

Overall, Regulus Black looks the most likely winner. He has the best form, the right conditions, and the likely run of the race. Sound Gloria is the value alternative, especially if the market underestimates her handicap debut potential.

Verdict

1st: Regulus Black
2nd: Sound Gloria
3rd: Baldosa

Best bet: Regulus Black
Best value: Sound Gloria
Dark horse: Alcanzor