The 15:15 at Ayr, the Now Ayrshire Radio Handicap over 1m2f, looks a competitive Class 4 contest with several runners arriving with solid claims. On ratings and recent form, Altareq is the horse they all have to beat, but the race shape and statistics suggest this may not be as straightforward as the market implies.

Altareq brings the strongest single piece of recent form into the race after shaping well when third at Carlisle over 1m. He was doing his best work late that day, and the return to 1m2f looks a clear positive. He remains lightly raced for a four-year-old and still has scope to progress. If the pace is honest, his strong finishing style should be well suited to this setup.

Kokanee is another major player. He arrives on the back of a win at Lingfield over this trip and has a good distance record, but his best form has come with ease underfoot. On good ground and at a short price, he looks a solid contender rather than an obvious value play.

The most interesting alternative is Mao Shang Wong. He has strong 1m2f credentials, including three wins from seven at the distance, and his recent Beverley second confirms he is in good heart. Daniel Tudhope is a notable booking, and the projected race shape should suit his finishing style. At around 8/1, he appeals as the strongest each-way angle.

Thyer also deserves more respect than the market initially suggested. His statistical profile is strong, particularly regarding class, surface and going, and his Curragh run hinted at a return to form. He may need everything to fall right, but he is not easily dismissed.

Leonato is the wildcard. As a lightly raced three-year-old from the George Boughey yard, he has clear upside, and first-time cheekpieces could unlock improvement. The concern is that his current form still leaves him with something to find against more established handicappers.

The likely race shape adds another layer. Idyllic may be the lone front-runner, with Qitaal, Cisco Disco and Break The Bank sitting close behind. However, the overall pace pressure could still be strong enough to bring late finishers into play, which is good news for Altareq, Kokanee and Mao Shang Wong.

Qitaal is consistent but exposed, and his long losing run tempers enthusiasm. Cisco Disco has excellent course-and-distance history but has not fired this season. Break The Bank has some outsider appeal if bouncing back from a long absence, while Ouro Preto and Idyllic both need significant improvement.

Overall, Altareq sets the standard and looks the most likely winner, but the prices make Mao Shang Wong the more attractive betting proposition. He has the right distance profile, current form and race setup to outrun his odds.

Selection: Altareq
Best value: Mao Shang Wong each-way
Danger: Kokanee
Dark horse: Thyer