The 16:35 at Market Rasen is a competitive Class 5 handicap chase over just shy of three miles, run on good ground. With nine runners declared and each-way terms paying three places, this is a race where the favourite has obvious claims, but the shape of the race suggests there may be better value away from the head of the market.

Huckleberry Sting arrives as the most likely winner on recent form. He made an immediate impact over fences when winning at Bangor in April and has backed that up with two solid placed efforts since. His latest third at Southwell was better than the bare result, as he travelled strongly before finding a couple too good late on. He remains lightly raced over fences and still has the scope to rate higher.

However, the pace map adds an important layer. HorseRaceBase identifies Galway Reel as the likely sole front-runner, with only moderate pressure expected. That could make him dangerous if Sean Bowen is able to dictate steady fractions. Galway Reel has questions to answer after a poor hurdles run last time, but his chase form from last autumn gives him a real chance if bouncing back.

Ballydisco is another major player. He returned from an absence with a solid second at Uttoxeter and that run should have brought him forward. The stats are particularly strong: trainer Tom Lacey has an excellent Market Rasen record, while Stan Sheppard also scores well at the track. Ballydisco is still a maiden over fences, but he has enough back-class to be very competitive in this grade.

Friends Don’t Ask also makes plenty of each-way appeal. He is an exposed 11-year-old, but he has been running consistently and is likely to race prominently, which looks a positive in a contest that may not strongly favour deep closers. His recent Bangor second puts him right in the mix.

Of the outsiders, On The Platform has a solid place profile and should improve from his comeback run, while Ribeye has excellent course-place statistics but needs to bounce back from a poor spell of form.

The verdict is that Huckleberry Sting remains the most likely winner, but he may be short enough given his hold-up style in a race that may not collapse late. Ballydisco looks the strongest value option, while Galway Reel is the key pace angle and could prove hard to catch if allowed an easy lead.

Selection: Ballydisco each-way
Main danger: Huckleberry Sting
Pace threat: Galway Reel
Place outsider: Ribeye