The 17:35 at Ayr, the Sunday Roast @westernhousehotel Available Now Handicap, is a Class 6 7f handicap on good ground with 11 runners after the withdrawal of Defence Missile. It is not a deep race, but it is an interesting betting puzzle because the most obvious winner and the best value may not be the same horse.

Toy Soldier brings the strongest recent form into the race. The Irish raider has run three solid races in succession and looked unlucky when finishing a close second at Roscommon last time. His recent Racing Post Ratings give him a clear form edge, and this 7f trip on good ground should suit. He deserves to be favourite and is the most likely winner.

The pace map adds another layer. Lope Y Linda looks the probable lone front-runner, which gives her a tactical chance, especially if she gets an uncontested lead. However, the race-shape data describes the front-running strength as weak rather than dominant, with a low collapse risk but enough late pressure expected for stronger finishers to get involved. That makes Lope Y Linda dangerous, but not bombproof.

The best value may lie with Monhammer. He was beaten only a neck at Musselburgh last time, arrives in form, and has a strong late-finishing profile. His statistics are also solid: he has good place records by class, going, course-and-distance and with Andrew Mullen. At around 5/1 to 7/1, he looks overpriced relative to his chance.

Jkr Cobbler is another who must be taken seriously. He is a four-time course-and-distance winner and his Ayr 7f record is excellent. Stat Attack also supports him strongly, with a 62% place record over both the distance and course-and-distance. He may lack the upside of some, but he is reliable under these conditions and looks a natural each-way player.

Ramon Di Loria is the other major place contender. He finished just behind Monhammer at Musselburgh and has a notably strong statistical profile, especially with Greg Fairley, in this class, at this time of year and on this going. He is not quite as compelling as Monhammer for win purposes, but he is a very credible forecast, tricast and place-market runner.

Penny Mountain is consistent and should not be dismissed, but she may lack the sharper winning angle of the main contenders. Summerstorms Dream has some late-finishing evidence but needs to step forward, while Bonito Cavalo, South Road, Bring Her Home and Bobbys Pride all have too many risks attached.

The final verdict is that Toy Soldier is the right favourite and the most likely winner, but the betting value sits with the proven Ayr closers. Monhammer appeals most at the prices, with Jkr Cobbler a strong each-way alternative and Ramon Di Loria worth including in combinations.

Selection: Monhammer each-way
Main danger: Toy Soldier
Best each-way alternative: Jkr Cobbler
Forecast/tricast players: Toy Soldier, Monhammer, Jkr Cobbler, Ramon Di Loria