The 17:25 at Southwell looks a competitive Class 4 handicap on Tapeta, but the overall shape of the race points strongly towards Club Class as the most solid contender.

James Fanshawe’s filly brings the best recent all-weather form into the race, having finished a clear second at Kempton last month. She remains lightly raced enough to improve, handles the trip well, and now wears first-time cheekpieces, which could sharpen her up further. With Daniel Muscutt booked and the yard in good form, she has a very strong profile.

The pace setup is also in her favour. HorseRaceBase identifies no obvious front-runner, but several runners are likely to race prominently. That creates the possibility of a genuinely-run contest, which should suit a horse like Club Class, who is often seen staying on strongly late. She looks the runner most likely to get the race run to suit.

Jupiter Ammon is a major danger if bouncing back from a poor Chester run. His earlier Newbury fourth reads well, and he has enough ability to be involved, but his 0-11 career record makes him hard to trust as a win proposition at short enough odds.

Northwest Passage also has claims after a career-best second at York. He is in good form and should be comfortable back on Tapeta, but some of his wider statistical profile is not as strong as the bare recent form suggests.

The interesting each-way angle is Aulis. His latest run was disappointing, but he is a strong late finisher and the likely race shape could bring him into play. His place statistics are also solid, making him more appealing as a place or each-way bet than as a win selection.

At bigger odds, Victors Spirit has previous course-and-distance winning form, but the lack of a clear lone-leader scenario weakens his case slightly. Crystal Mariner has ability on the all-weather but needs to prove he is still in the same form as last season, while Forever Penywern and Vaguer both have questions to answer.

Overall, Club Class looks the most likely winner. She has the form, the race setup, the trainer form and the finishing style to take advantage if the race becomes strongly run.

Selection: Club Class
Best each-way alternative: Aulis
Main danger: Jupiter Ammon
Value angle: Aulis to hit the frame