The 4.00 at Ayr is a Class 6 one-mile handicap on good ground, and while Hunterian arrives as the obvious form horse, the race has more depth than the market may suggest.

Hunterian comes here after opening his account over course and distance 17 days ago. His recent profile is strong: placed twice before winning, still lightly raced, and a 3lb rise looks fair. His Racing Post Ratings of 65 and 64 on his last two runs make him a solid benchmark. From a pace perspective, he is one of the few likely to race prominently in a contest with no obvious front-runner, which is a major positive. He is the most likely winner.

The main threat may be Hey Havana, who has run well on all three starts for Geoffrey Harker. His Redcar second over 7f was strong, and he remains unexposed over a mile. He can race a little freely, but with the cheekpieces removed and Clifford Lee booked, there is still upside. He looks a fair danger rather than a standout value play.

Ey Up He’s A Star is interesting at around 5/1. He shaped well when third in a big-field Doncaster handicap on his first real try at a mile, finishing strongly. The race shape could suit closers, as there is only moderate early pressure and several runners prefer to be held up. He is a serious contender if backing up that latest effort.

The value angle could be Penelope’s Sister. She is a three-time course-and-distance winner and is now well handicapped. Her recent fifth over 1m2f at Ayr was a step back in the right direction, and returning to a mile is a plus. She needs to be ridden more positively than she has been this season, but at around 6/1 to 8/1 she has each-way appeal.

Of the bigger prices, Starliner has the raw ability to figure, having already won over this course and distance, but he is inconsistent and first-time cheekpieces make him hard to trust. Concert Boy is a strong late finisher and has place-stat appeal, but his turf record is a serious negative. Flying Moonlight is unexposed and could improve, though he still has plenty to find on ratings.

Power Ranking

1. Hunterian
2. Ey Up He’s A Star
3. Hey Havana
4. Penelope’s Sister
5. Starliner
6. Flying Moonlight
7. Lightning Galaxy
8. Carmel Valley
9. Filly Eilish
10. Lovette
11. Concert Boy

Verdict

Most likely winner: Hunterian
Most dangerous improver: Ey Up He’s A Star
Best value bet: Penelope’s Sister each-way
Overbet runner: Flying Moonlight if too short, as his profile is more promise than proof
Betting strategy: Hunterian is the win horse, but Penelope’s Sister makes most appeal each-way at the prices.