The Group 3 Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket on Thursday may have attracted only five runners, but it brings together some of the most promising staying three-year-olds in training and could provide important clues for the second half of the season’s middle-distance and St Leger picture.

At the head of the market is Charlie Appleby’s Del Maro, whose recent performances suggest a breakthrough Pattern success is close at hand. The German-bred colt arrives after successive narrow defeats, most notably when finishing a close second in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. Having already shown his liking for quick ground and proven his stamina over 1m6f, he brings the strongest established form into the race. His Racing Post Rating of 107 from Ascot makes him the benchmark, and with William Buick retaining the ride, he looks certain to be involved at the finish once again.

However, there is a compelling argument that Point Of Law may yet have more improvement to offer. The John and Thady Gosden-trained colt has raced only three times and looked far from the finished article when fourth in the Queen’s Vase. Despite suffering interference on the first turn, he stayed on strongly in the closing stages and was finishing almost as well as Del Maro. Given his limited experience and powerful pedigree, further progress looks highly likely. If taking the expected step forward from Ascot, he could emerge as the principal threat to the favourite.

Galiyan also exits the Queen’s Vase and cannot be dismissed. Sent off favourite at Royal Ascot after an impressive Chester maiden victory, he endured a less-than-ideal trip, racing wide for much of the contest before fading into sixth. That effort may not fully reflect his ability, and Andrew Balding’s colt remains open to improvement. Nevertheless, both Del Maro and Point Of Law appeared to finish their race more strongly, leaving him with something to find on the formbook.

The wildcard in the field is Alderman, who produced a huge career-best when fifth in the Derby at Epsom at odds of 100-1. Richard Hannon’s colt stayed on encouragingly through the closing stages and shaped as though a longer trip would suit. The step up to 1m5f therefore looks a positive move. The principal concern is the ground; his standout performance came on soft going, and Thursday’s quicker surface represents a significantly different test. If he handles conditions, he has the profile of a horse capable of outrunning his odds once more.

Completing the line-up is Nil Bua Gan Dua, representing Joseph O’Brien and partnered by Ryan Moore. The colt was a creditable fourth in a competitive Royal Ascot handicap over 1m2f and shaped as though further would suit. He is likely to be the pace angle in a race lacking obvious front-runners, and that tactical advantage could allow him to make his presence felt for longer than the market expects. Even so, he must find improvement to match the proven Group-race form of the leading trio.

Pace and Tactics

With such a small field, race shape could play a significant role. Nil Bua Gan Dua appears the most likely leader, while Galiyan may also race prominently. Del Maro and Point Of Law are proven strong finishers and should be well served if the tempo increases from halfway. A steadily run contest could bring tactical speed into play, but the proven stamina of the Ascot runners remains a major asset.

Verdict

Del Maro deserves favouritism based on his recent achievements and sets the standard on form. However, Point Of Law’s untapped potential makes him a fascinating rival, and he appeals as the horse most likely to improve past the favourite.

Prediction

1. Point Of Law
2. Del Maro
3. Alderman
4. Galiyan
5. Nil Bua Gan Dua

Most Likely Winner: Del Maro
Best Value Bet: Point Of Law
Most Dangerous Improver: Point Of Law
Each-Way Alternative: Alderman