The 17:25 at Leopardstown, a competitive 7f BOYLE Sports “Pick Your Place” Handicap for three-year-olds, looks set to provide one of the more intriguing betting puzzles on Thursday evening. While recent winner Zenford is likely to attract plenty of support after his success at Limerick, the race contains several lightly raced and progressive types capable of taking a significant step forward.

Zenford Sets the Standard

Zenford arrives in the strongest current form. The J.P. Murtagh-trained gelding has improved steadily with racing and gained a deserved first victory when landing a 7f handicap at Limerick last month. His consistency is hard to fault, having finished in the first three on each of his last five starts, and his Racing Post Ratings place him among the leading contenders.

However, there are a couple of questions for punters to consider. His latest win came on soft ground, and while he has run well on better surfaces, the majority of his strongest efforts have come with ease underfoot. He is also now 5lb higher than for that success and faces several rivals with greater improvement potential.

Dark Leader Looks Well Treated

The most interesting runner from a handicapping perspective is Dark Leader. The J.A. Stack-trained colt has raced only three times and shaped with considerable promise in maiden company. Most notably, he finished ahead of Zenford when runner-up at Limerick in April, and he now meets that rival on significantly better terms at the weights.

His opening handicap mark of 76 could underestimate his true ability. With only three career starts under his belt, there is every chance that he can progress beyond his current rating, making him one of the most appealing betting propositions in the field.

Venetian Star Knocking on the Door

Venetian Star is becoming one of the more familiar names in three-year-old handicaps. The Patrick Foley-trained gelding has been admirably consistent and was narrowly denied by Zenford at Limerick last time. The concern is obvious: he remains a maiden after ten starts.

His form gives him every chance of making the frame once again, but punters may be reluctant to support him at relatively short odds until he demonstrates a willingness to get his head in front.

Unexposed Threats

Several runners have the potential to outperform their current marks.

Caitouna arrives on the back of a victory at Fairyhouse and remains relatively unexposed after just two handicap starts. A 5lb rise asks a new question, but further progress would not be a surprise.

Watch Tower also deserves respect. The booking of Colin Keane catches the eye, and his juvenile maiden form was stronger than his recent handicap debut effort suggests. If he builds on that reappearance run, he could easily become involved.

Chapel Lane is another who remains open to improvement. The return to 7f may suit after shaping better over a mile at the Curragh last time, while his trainer, Willie McCreery, continues to operate at a healthy strike-rate.

Race Shape Could Be Key

The likely pace scenario suggests an honest gallop. Zenford, Invincible Will and Venetian Star all possess tactical speed, ensuring that the race should be run at a fair tempo. That setup could favour runners who settle off the pace and finish strongly, which may play directly into the hands of Dark Leader and Watch Tower.

Verdict

Zenford deserves his position at the head of the market and is the most likely winner on recent evidence. Nevertheless, handicaps are often won by horses with more improvement left to come, and Dark Leader fits that profile perfectly.

With a potentially lenient opening mark, strong maiden form and scope for significant progression, Dark Leader rates as the most interesting runner in the field and the standout value play against the favourite.

Predicted Finishing Order

1. Dark Leader
2. Zenford
3. Watch Tower
4. Caitouna
5. Venetian Star

Best Bet: Dark Leader
Best Each-Way Bet: Watch Tower
Most Likely Winner: Zenford
Value Angle: Dark Leader